It is usual that the mullahs of Iran have greatly exaggerated their capabilities and raised false mobilizing slogans since their revolution in 1979, as this is an essential part of their strategy in maintaining unity and ideological alignment with their followers and supporters inside Iran. The moral mobilization plays a very important role in inflaming feelings and emotions against those the mullahs describe as the enemies of the revolution, especially the “Great Satan” that symbolizes the United States, whose relationship with the mullahs is one of the most important examples of disinformation and political deception that overshadows the behavior of Iranian leaders in general.
Within the framework of this false political atmosphere the mullahs surround themselves with, it is possible to understand the content of their political rhetoric, which is sometimes pathetic, and sometimes ridiculous, including the statements of General Hossein Salami, Commander of the Revolutionary Guards, which he expressed recently in the Iranian Shura Council, in which he said that “Iran defeated the United States without paying a heavy price”, noting that “the option of war against Iran is not currently on the table”, and that his country “possesses the necessary military capabilities to defeat the United States in any military conflict!”
This type of demagogic leaders is common in the world, and many countries have been afflicted by them in the past and present, and most of them live with illusions of power, greatness and vanity, and some of them realize the reality of power balances with others, but they survive on exporting deception and illusion to their people for reasons related to failure in politics, planning, and development, and to seeking justifications for this failure, and in both cases the peoples receive nothing except lying and deceit!
I think that the mullahs of Iran belong to the second type of deceitful leaders. They are well aware of the limits of their military power, as evidenced by that they remained completely silent and even donated free logistical services to the American forces when they invaded Afghanistan and Iraq, fearing that they would get angry and then lead strikes against Iran. Some may argue that the Iranian position at the time was aimed at facilitating the US involvement in two wars, especially since the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 was aimed primarily at toppling Saddam Hussein’s regime, something the mullahs had always dreamed of and that is in their strategic interest before the interest of the United States and its allies, and this is theoretically correct. But the scene at the time did not bear such calculations and analyzes, and the American determination and drive during the invasion raised real fear and concern among the mullahs of Iran, who had already benefited from the results of this invasion, which opened the doors for them to penetrate Iraq so far that some American experts later considered that The US war had “presented Iraq as a gift to Iran,” but all of these were subsequent repercussions due to poor planning and preparation for the post-Saddam period.
The Iranian mullahs are also aware of the falsity of their talk about the military capabilities that “closed the door to launching a war against Iran”, and they know very well that the issue of these alleged military capabilities has no weight and no consideration in the context of the large differences in the balance of power between the world’s first military force and a particularly dilapidated military arsenal especially as to air and naval capabilities, and that there are several other factors that have prevented – and are still preventing – from launching an American war against Iran, foremost among which is the strategic vision of President Trump, based on betting on the effectiveness of the strategy of severe sanctions in bringing the Iranian regime to its knees and forcing it to sit down for negotiations, as well as on his general position on not waging new wars, whether against Iran or others, and granting a greater role to the sanctions and economic blockade mechanism in achieving the goals of US foreign policy, even in its relations with major strategic opponents such as China and Russia.
It is noteworthy that the mullahs ‘and their generals’ talk about the inability of the United States to launch a war against Iran has emerged and increased at the present time, while they have been begging for global support a few months ago for fear of American military strikes against them. Everyone knows very well that the idea of war against Iran is largely excluded for a main reason, which is the US presidential elections next November, as such a decision represents an unsecured political adventure for any American president running the election race to win a second presidential term, unless American national interests abroad are exposed to a great risk that necessitates jumping over any immediate electoral calculations.
In general, the idea of victory and defeat among the ideological ruling regimes and the militias and their affiliated organizations is a mercurial idea. They are the ones who set the criteria for victory and the rules for defeat, and they are the ones who claim victory even if their losses exceed imagination. We have all seen how the Lebanese “Hezbollah” claimed victory in all the military rounds it fought against Israel, despite the fact that everyone was following the enormous losses and the exorbitant bill borne by the Lebanese Treasury as a result of the party’s incalculable adventures and its outlawing the State’s legitimacy by implementing dictates and readings imposed on it by Tehran!
