After weeks of demonstrations against President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, new realities are unfolding on the Algerian scene, starting with the resignation of the President and following popular celebrations of the Algerian people.
Many have been speculating about the scenarios for the next phase and what has happened in the last two weeks in the backstage of Algerian decision-making. But now, the most important point is that the next steps will not be easy in the wake of the post-2011 situation in the Arab world.
Everyone who cares about Algeria and its people wants to see a smooth and peaceful transition. In this transition, the Algerian State should maintain its balance, cohesion and great strategic influence on the regional and world scene while at the same time satisfying the aspirations of its people. The region cannot tolerate any other scenario.
The media are discussing several scenarios on the future of the situation in Algeria. The Algerian people, nevertheless, have proved to remained the safety valve for this major Arab country. Their solidarity stood as an impenetrable wall against any bids to take control of the country or turn it into a different path, like in other Arab countries.
Algerians, the people and the army, are well aware of the lessons of the recent past. They are also aware that some opportunists want to enter the scene today. Algeria hopefully will succeed in taking this step without any obstacles to the aspirations of its people.
Some people compare the Algerian situation to other countries’, but its history suggests that it has enough experience to set its own path.
There are social and political differences between Algeria and any other Arab country. Since the start of their movement, Algerians have been acting on a tightrope, carrying in their minds the lessons of the bloody experience with violence and terrorism from the 1990s onwards. They have a great regard for the lessons of this experience. They want to avoid any further slippery slopes. The lessons learned represent a powerful shield that protects the the popular movement and the Algerian State.
What has happened so far in Algeria is perhaps the easiest part of the Algerian people’s journey towards the post-Bouteflika transition. The trickiest part is to reach the objectives of this peaceful and civilized movement.
As a major Arab country, Algeria is a key factor in the equation of Arab national security. Naturally, everyone in the Arab world should be concerned about what is happening there.
The Algerian movement is a grassroots movement that is not spearheaded by particular leaders. The lack of leadership opens the door to different paths, some positive and some negative.
There is an opportunity to give birth to a new historical leadership to steer the process of building the Second Republic. On the other hand, Islamist political forces have a chance to rise to the forefront, which is a hard but still a serious scenario.
It is obviously up to the Algerian people to decide. The point is that it there is an good opportunity to build a new national consensus in a country that fears falling backing into conflict. Only concensus can prevent political polarization and fragmentation.
What happened in Algeria also provides many lessons to Arab countries alike. The aspirations of millions of young Arabs cannot be overlooked. The world has changed. Many policies and plans that have been in place for two decades are no longer valid. The collective consciousness of nations has seen a major shift. Many young people want decent jobs and lives.
