When I heard Iranian leaders say that their regime does not want war but that they will defend themselves if necessary, I was very surprised. Denying his regime’s involvement in the attack on Aramco’s facilities, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif claimed that “the Saudis themselves do not believe this story.”
Naïve is for the mullahs’ regime to think that denying its role in these and many other attacks has credibility in the eyes of the world. The proxies themselves have openly acknowledged that Khamenei is their leader. More recently, Hassan Nasrallah, leader of Hezbollah in Lebanon, said as much. Who can believe allegations denying the link between the mullahs and the actions of their guerrilla clients?
One of the reasons for this Iranian behaviour, which flouts all international values, principles, norms, standards, conventions and laws, is certainly the reluctance of the American government and its strangely stated desire to avoid military action.
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo called the attacks an “act of war,” but said his country was in favour of a “peaceful solution.” Everyone prefers a peaceful solution, but what does it look like? How can it be achieved? Where to start from?
Bambio echoed President Trump’s point of view. “The United States is more prepared than any country […] in any history, if we have to go that way,” the president said. “Because the easiest thing I could do, ‘Okay, go ahead. Knock out 15 different major things in Iran…’ It will take place in one minute… That would be a very bad day for Iran. That’s the easiest thing I could do. It’s so easy.” He did good brandishing the big stick, but quickly scratched it by saying, “But I’m not looking to do that if I can.”
Trump openly bets on changing attitudes with what he calls “restraint” and that he has been able to “change many people’s attitudes” in this way. This may have happened before, although observers doubt the veracity and effectiveness of this. But the situation of the Iranian regime seems different.
We are dealing with a regime that only answers to the language of force, only understands under pressure and always goes on calculated adventures to subjugate others. It interprets messages of appeasement and restraint as a kind of hesitation and strategic weakness.
If the mullahs did not really want war, they would not hesitate for a moment to consider the successive offers of the White House to hold a meeting between Presidents Rouhani and Trump and Ali Khamenei would not refuse to conduct negotiations.
We might say that it is talking about manoeuvres to improve the negotiating position. Absolutely, but the problem is that the mullahs feel safe and do not worry about the consequences of rejection.
The Iranian regime is using the situation to gain more points and improve its regional position by attacking some neighbouring countries and extending its presence to countries such as Syria and Iraq.
One of the weaknesses of President Trump’s policy towards the mullahs is that he believes that severe economic sanctions undermine the regime, which is not the case. They have only helped the regime’s supporters to turn the page on their disagreements. They have never harmed the stability of the regime and the Revolutionary Guards, who seem more free than ever on a regional level.
Economic sanctions can be effective in some sectors of the Iranian economy. However, profit and loss calculations suggest that the regime would prefer sanctions to a military strike.
Obviously, the sanctions ultimately affect not the leaders and leaders of the Iranian regime, but the Iranian people. On the other hand, a military strike could put an end to this regime or at least give the Iranian people the opportunity to escape its iron grip.
Minister Zarif must stop lying to himself. His uh no longer deceives anyone. When he claimed that his regime did not want war, he underestimated people’s intelligence.
People in general do not want war, but the mullahs only rejoice in the atmosphere of war. They never had a development plan for the Iranian people. Their only project has been an army of sectarian destruction.
