Opinion & Analysis

What to Expect after Trump-Kim Summit

Trump has, so far, succeeded in dealing with the North Korean nuclear file. North Korean state-run news agencies recently reported that the country will stop testing nuclear weapons and missiles. The same reports confirmed that Kim announced the shutdown of a nuclear test site.

 Trump tweeted saying the news was very good. Kim’s move is a significant development. The crisis could have led to a global conflict. A few months ago, the world witnessed mutual threats between Kim and Trump. Both presidents boasted of their possession of intercontinental missiles and destructive weapons.

 Kim said his country didn’t need to conduct more tests. He officially declared that North Korea has already completed the process of developing nuclear weapons.

 International media did not focus on this part of Kim’s statements. Uncertainty has been covering North Korea’s nuclear capabilities for many years but there are reports that confirm its possession of atomic weapons. Kim’s statements are an unprecedented official recognition of his country’s possession of nuclear weapons. North Korea has become an unofficial member of the nuclear club.

 The US was sure that North Korea possesses nuclear capabilities, a fact that speeded up direct and indirect talks. Last October, North Korea sent the message that it won’t hesitate to use nuclear weapons in any potential conflict with the US. Russian channels conveyed the message.

 The information played a major role in the developments in the crisis. South Korea mediation succeeded in convincing the US of the need to talk with North Korea.

 The nuclear weapon re-imposed its prestige as decisive in the balance of major international powers. This won’t go unnoticed by countries such as Iran. The mullahs are following North Korea’s steps in dealing with the US.

The potential Trump-Kim summit will give the two presidents what to propagate in their countries. Trump will see it as a historic political victory that no former US administration has ever achieved. But this breakthrough is against the backdrop of North Korea’s possession of nuclear weapons. Kim has no need to justify his decision to talk with the US by virtue of the nature of his State and regime. The North Korean media will boast that testing missile and nuclear weapons have stopped, since last November, after making sure that the country possesses intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching all the territory of the US.

 President Kim has given a precious opportunity for the summit to succeed. Trump has threatened to cancel the planned talks with North Korea’s leader if they are “not fruitful”. Although Kim is a young leader he is mature and politically experienced. His move to stop nuclear weapons test made Trump keen to hold the meeting. Kim foresees that the international embargo imposed on his country will be eased after the summit. Mike Pompeo met with Kim and said that the meeting went “very smoothly and a good relationship was formed”. The visit played a vital role in the recent development. Pyongyang is waiting for a shining future with the US.

 

Arab countries should learn from this diplomatic game. The use of missile and nuclear weapons in international relations will tempt Iran. Tehran will try to apply the North Korean strategy and develop nuclear missiles so as to compete with the West. But Israel won’t let that happen. Tel Aviv will block the Iranian expansionist dream.

Dr. Salem Alketbi

Dr. Salem Alketbi is an Emirati political analyst and researcher whose work explains the forces reshaping the Middle East. He holds a PhD in Public Law and Political Science, awarded with highest distinction and a recommendation for publication, from Hassan II University in Casablanca. His thesis examined political and religious propaganda on Arab social media. His columns, published in Arab and international outlets, focus on Gulf security, Iran, countering extremism, and the UAE’s vision of a stable, prosperous region built on cooperation.

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