It is perhaps the first time that the entire world is following the French presidential elections. The next election is expected to determine the direction of Europe in the coming years and answer the most important question on the political agenda: How does Trump’s arrival to the White House affect the far-right in Europe?
Eleven candidates are involved in the elections that will be held on the twenty-third of this month, three of which are leading the polls but none is expected to win the first round, because the results of the public opinion polls are not decisive.
The election is considered important in the history of France for several reasons. First, for the first time in a decade and a half, the chances of the far-right National Front are high. Some observers nominate far-right National Front to make the surprise, similar to what happened with Donald Trump in the recent US election. However, this is the first time in the history of France that the president has not run for a second term, because the current President François Hollande has low popularity.
Marine Le Pen, leader of the National Front, is the hope of the far-right in France and Europe. It is possible she can make a surprise given she and candidate Emmanuel Macron came neck to neck in the recent opinion polls. Marine Le Pen had a considerable experience in the elections of 2012, where she ranked third, and led he National Front to achieve remarkable electoral gains in the local elections in 2015, in a reflection of growing support.
The opinion polls do not give a clear advantage to Macron or Le Pen, but Macron is favourable if the two get into a second round on May 7.
Le Pen has a strict attitude towards Muslims; she compared their presence to the German occupation of the country in the 1940s. Although she has softened her tone she is still far from representing the image of French usual tolerance. Her victory means the political fall of Europe, in the coming period, in the hands of the far-right, in the context of the growing nationalist movements in Germany, Netherlands and elsewhere. This also means a serious blow to the European Union, because Le Pen calls for negotiations on a new formula of a French exit from the EU. Marine Le Pen also calls for the automatic expulsion of illegal immigrants and the closure of “extremist” mosques.
Le Pen’s main rival is Emmanuel Macron, the 39-year-old young politician who has a strong chance to become the youngest French president in history. Macron is not a MP and has never run for any election, but his political ascendancy is strikingly strong and he is creative and innovative enough to make a real breakthrough in French politics.
The backdrop of the French elections internally and externally promises a surprise. François Fillon, who won the nomination of the Republican Party, lagged behind in the electoral race, because of financial allegations that his wife and his two sons have unjustly received governmental funds, which led to a significant decline in the chance of his victory.
Some observers believe that Marine Le Pen is no longer an extremist and that she is struggling to get rid of the far-right stigma. She has also condemned many of the positions of her father Jean-Marie Le Pen, former leader of the National Front, who was demanding the expulsion of more than 23 million foreigners from France. The National Front started, under the leadership of Marine Le Pen, to let go of these demands and, among other things, of the denial of the Holocaust. So the party’s support has increased from 18% in 2010 to 24% now.
Other strict positions of the National Front concern immigration only, where Le Pen continues to see that French nationality is either hereditary or earned, and refuses illegal immigrants in France. Le Pen’s far-right policy have increased after Trump’s victory, when she announced that she intends to prevent the children of illegal immigrants from getting free education in France saying “If you come to our country, do not expect us to take care of you or your children get free education – playing time is over.” This is a position that Le Pen shares with other rivals such as François Fillon, who calls for reducing immigration as much as possible.
I think that Le Pen’s strength does not lie on her position about immigration, because all candidates have the same position, but in that she could benefit from voters’ discontent about traditional parties and candidates. This very point helped Trump win against Hillary Clinton. What happened in the US can happen in France and Le Pen can be just another pillar in building a new world alongside Trump, as she says.
