After the official nomination of the Republican candidate Donald Trump to run for the US presidential elections in November, logic says that there is a chance of no less than 50 percent for Trump to win in this election for several reasons and considerations, notably that the chances of presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump are currently almost equal given the clear convergence of their results in recent opinion polls. Trump has even reduced the distance from Clinton from about 13 points to 3 points in the latest opinion poll. This index should not be ignored or disregarded at all.
The fact is that we are facing an unprecedented US presidential election whose results are difficult to predict for a vital cause, which is that the US State is quite keen on pioneering the idea of “the model”, which represents one of the pillars of its global supremacy and sovereignty. What is well known is that the “marketing” of the idea of the model is always in need of creativity and innovation. The concern for this idea pushes in the direction of surprising the world with the unexpected. Putting current President Barack Obama forward was one of the manifestations of this American strategic thinking, behind which stand research centers and thought institutions working on studying the future of the American superiority and hegemony globally, particularly on the cultural level, or what is known as the supremacy of what is known as the American model and American dream.
From this particular angle, that of political and cultural surprise and dazzling, I feel that the next US presidential election is boggling. Both candidates may represent a model for this thinking. For Lady Hillary Clinton, there is an American sense of lagging behind countries where women have reached the presidential chair, as many countries have preceded the United States on this path, a fact that is not worthy of a state that has always sought to be at the forefront in terms of the indicators of political development, standing for a model, and cultural values in the world. Therefore, Clinton’s presidency would give the United States an important political luster at a stage where the US suffers from the risk of decay and decline in the face of rising international powers that are competing strongly with it, if not on the leadership of the new world order, this competition will focus on a new structure of a collective leadership or a multi-polar global system, which means negative effects on the United States strategic interests, and on ambitions seeking the continuity of the strategic superiority of the US and to keep the Twenty First Century an exceptional American century. And Clinton bets strongly on this specific card, as she focuses on inviting the American electorate to write a new page in the history of the United States, through electing her as President of the country.
On the opposite side, there is the Republican candidate Donald Trump, who owns, on his part, qualifications to become a new model of the US surprise strategy. It is true that Trump, in a way or another, is a symbol of the isolationism rooted in American history, but we must not ignore the role of US institutions in decision-making, and that the matter is not absolutely up to the President alone. Also, qualitative signals and changes should be noted in the election campaign discourse of Trump himself in recent weeks and days. The man chosen by Trump to run for candidacy with him on the position of vice president, who is Mike Pence, the governor of the state of Indiana, said in his first speech, “Trump will be a strong leader who will stand by US allies and destroy the enemies of freedom.” It is also noted that Pence was a sharp critic of the proposed ban called for by Trump about Muslims entry into the United States, so we have to recognize the implicit reassurance message in this smart choice on the part of the Republican candidate.
We must also realize that Trump may be contrary to the history of the Republican candidates in the White House. He may be almost the least familiar with foreign policy before running for office, but he embodies the next American neo-liberal model coming from the world of finance and economy to the world of politics. He is a symbol of the liberal culture that marries money, the media, trade and politics. And in this specific aspect, he does not possess a unique feature. His rival, Hillary Clinton, represents in the eyes of many, a symbol of the values of “Wall Street” and wealthy Americans. But Trump certainly looks different from the traditional politicians in the two major parties. Some even believe he represents the “Third Way” that came out of the heart of the Republican Party in light of the difficulty of the emergence of a third political current that can compete with the two old parties in American politics. Here specifically, one of his sources of strength and competitiveness in the next few months can be mentioned, he represents a non-traditional voice in American politics, and does not speak like the former candidates, so he will bet too much on the consecration of the change in the American political mood in order to strengthen his electoral position.
We must realize that there is a period that is not short before the upcoming November elections, and that Trump will maneuver much with the card of the threats facing the United States abroad, but it is difficult for him to be a good player in the social security file which recently emerged, due to the growing trend of racism and discrimination against minorities, especially that Trump himself is accused of encouraging such tendencies since his candidacy for the office of president!!
For us in the Arabian Gulf region, we are like the rest of the world, we are very much interested in the identity of the person sitting on the White House chair. The person who sits there inevitably affects the policies of the countries of the whole world, a fact that does not underestimate any party or any state, because the issue is mainly linked to the huge and complex network of strategic interests that links the United States to the countries of the world.
No one can be certain of the identity of the likely winner of the upcoming US presidential election, but there are indicators, which are important, but we should not overly engage in expectations, because we are in the process of an unconventional electoral battle, on one of its ends is a candidate that was able to turn the expectations and snatch the candidacy for the Republican Party contrary to all expectations and strategic estimates that reduced his chances of winning not only the final run, but of going beyond the preliminary stages in partisan elections, and we just have to remember the beginnings of Trump’s campaign, and how it was faced by the American audience and media and how they dealt with it, and how his image was and how it has become, to make sure that we are facing an unprecedented transition using the influential means of political propaganda and marketing.
From now until the decisive round of the election in November, we have to watch and follow the expected shifts in Trump’s discourse, especially towards controversial issues, then we have to ask: will Trump do it?
