Opinion & Analysis

On the Margin of the “Brexit”

* In several countries in different parts of the world, I knew that the Facebook and iPhone generation complains from the authoritarianism of the television and paper newspapers generation and its control of the future of young people, but I was surprised that the same problem came to the fore in an ancient country in freedoms such as Britain, where opinion polls conducted after the onset of the results of the referendum, which resulted in Britain out of the European Union, revealed that the young generation is angry of older compatriots after a survey revealed that 60% of those who are over the age of 65 voted for the exit while most young people voted for Britain to stay. The survey of 12 thousand people published by “Michael Ashcroft” Institute for opinion polls, confirmed that 73% of those who are between 18-24 years and 62% of those aged 25-34 years voted for Britain to stay within the European Union. While the majority of those over 65 years voted for the departure. The mayor Gul in Yorkshire, northern England said: “There is a huge gap between the generations we will have to bridge”. Here appears the prickly talk about generational gap, which does not distinguish between countries, regardless of their development and economic and technical progress. The information and communication revolution has already deepened the gap between generations and we have to deal with this reality.

* There is a considerable debate among observers about the pros and cons of the “Brexit”, and the loser and the winner in this referendum, but wisdom requires to say that these calculations may seem premature since the aftermath of the “Brexit” is not clear, and the effects and results cannot be confined entirely in a matter of a few hours. There are results that are subject to the outcome of the interactions of the final exit talks’ screenplay, but what could be agreed upon is that the results of the referendum represent a major setback for the idea of ​​unity and integration not only in Europe but also in the whole world. The shock came, this time, from the heart of the “inspiring model”, represented by the European Union, which remained for years and decades like a role model for countries and regional and international blocs. So will the European Union shift from an inspiring model of foundation, construction and development to an inspiring model in the decomposition and disintegration and collapse? This is what wil be answered in the years to come!

* Could it be said that the Brexit is the beginning of the end to the wave of globalization and a return to the bosom of the national state? This is possible, but the problem is that the developments on the economic and commercial level are working on the disintegration of the sovereignty of the national state, so does the “political” contradict the “economic” or that does the matter has nothing to do with the national state, and is linked to a of mainly right-wing extremism wave that is pushing for a return to origins and references below the state, and does that mean the stepping up of  reference and tribal and religious and ethnic loyalties that compete with the state as a cover that contemporary societies have settled down in staying in its shadow?

*The dominos theory works competently in the fields of politics, security, and economy, so will this theory work as efficiently and cause the circulating of the infection out from Britain to other EU countries, or even inside Britain itself, and cause Britain to go back to what it was nearly four decades ago ?!

* Will the European Union take advantage of the Brexit noise and decide on the exit of other troubled economies from the euro zone, such as the Greek economy, which received a fresh blow because of the Brexit?

* Russia, which has suffered in recent years from the effects of EU sanctions, feels a buried beatitude since receiving the news of the British exit from the European Union. It is aware that the Union has at least two years to wake up from this powerful blow, during which it would abstain from the dispute with Russia, not to mention that the United States will not find a qualified strategic partner to get along with it in any decision concerning punishing Russia or pressuring it economically.

* The results of the vote are linked to the British and global position towards the tide of globalization and immigration in general, as it is expected that the wave of globalization will relatively recede, especially in the event of the winning of the US Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump in the next presidential election in November, as Trump advocates American isolationism and rejects immigration and is anti-foreigners and Muslims in particular, which feeds the parallel right-wing in Europe, so that the world capitals assume a right-wing extremist tendency during the foreseeable future, which in turn weakens the tide of globalization and the market economy and so on.

* The results of the Brexit referendum confirmed that opinion polls in most Western countries are conducted in a scientific manner and have great credibility. Despite the expectations or even the assurances of most politicians and experts that the referendum will result in the remaining of Britain’s in the UE, the serious opinion polls preceding the referendum by about two weeks, which outweighed the opinions of the supporters of the exit of Britain and which were not believed, had great credibility, and stressed the professionalism of those who made them. More than a poll, most notably the poll carried out by the ORP Foundation, which was conducted for the benefit of the British newspaper The Independent and published a few days before the poll, that the camp of supporters of Britain’s exit from the European Union progresses, but the camp of the supporters of the staying of Britain in the EU refuted these results and did not deal with it with due diligence!

* Finally, a strange Arab joy was expressed by many Arab media following the results of the Brexit, and the reason, according to some, is that the results represent a weakening of Britain and a blow to Israel (!) a blatant expression of our mastery of the art of political spite and machination. We do not look for our real interests in the events, nor are we controlled by objective calculations, but we remain dependent upon calculations of stubbornness even if we lost everything, Britain is not the only ally of Israel within the EU, and Britain would not become a banana republic after exiting the European Union, but what about our calculations in this position.

Dr. Salem Alketbi

Dr. Salem Alketbi is an Emirati political analyst and researcher whose work explains the forces reshaping the Middle East. He holds a PhD in Public Law and Political Science, awarded with highest distinction and a recommendation for publication, from Hassan II University in Casablanca. His thesis examined political and religious propaganda on Arab social media. His columns, published in Arab and international outlets, focus on Gulf security, Iran, countering extremism, and the UAE’s vision of a stable, prosperous region built on cooperation.

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