I find no other explanation for US behavior regarding Iranian practices in recent years than that it embodies the indecision and misjudgment that began with the signing of the nuclear agreement in 2015. Recently, the US invited the UN Security Council to a briefing on Russia’s use of Iranian-made drones in Ukraine. France and the UK have expressed solidarity with the US demand.
The US Mission to the UN said it was an “expert briefing” to address the issue of Russian procurement of Iranian-made rallies in violation of a Security Council resolution. Despite Iran’s official denials, all evidence confirms that Iranian drones are operating in Ukraine. But that is not the topic of our discussion here.
But I glean from what is happening an important question that has to do with regional security in the Middle East. Iranian drones are spreading around us in Yemen, Iraq, and possibly Lebanon and the Palestinian territories. Whoever manages to smuggle these aircraft into Yemen can use the same means to get them into other areas to achieve their goals on other fronts.
All of this means that we are dealing with a new Iranian threat that is not limited to the nuclear threat. Other sources are even more onerous. The most serious is the Iranian Shahed kamikaze drones that, according to several media outlets, have bombed Ukrainian cities, which worries the West as a whole. Several European countries have imposed sanctions on Iran for supplying Russia with drones.
We are not here to support one side or the other in the Ukraine war. Kiev uses kamikaze drones of its own, including the American-made Switchblade. So we are not on the side of one party or the other.
But we are talking specifically about the threat that the Iranian military arsenal poses to regional security and stability.
Iran, which has become an arms supplier to a big country like Russia, will not do with living as a normal state, especially with its regime pursuing a regional expansion project that started years ago. The balance of international power is now prepared for its strategic calculation, if not supportive, then within the framework of mutual interests.
The danger of Iran acquiring these destructive and inexpensive weapons lies in their proven misuse, confirmed by their use by militias in several Arab countries. Yesterday, I read a report about the havoc Iranian cruise missiles could wreak on the seas and oceans once they are developed and can be launched from ships and naval units.
There is a high potential for further chaos and turmoil in the various maritime areas where Iran is seeking to expand its influence, particularly in the Gulf, Red Sea, and Arabian Sea.
Of course, Americans have been unwilling to deal with Iran, and there is no clear US strategy to contain the Iranian threat except one based on reviving a nuclear deal full of loopholes and flaws that has left the door wide open for a regional Iranian encroachment since 2015.
In other words, US policy planners have no strategy to counter a nuclear Iran that they publicly and officially admit is just around the corner. We are only a few weeks or at most a few months away from that. The superpower’s deterence is missing, and its ability to contain the threat or even to build alliances that can counter the threat has been undermined.
Rather, it is moving in the opposite direction, destroying what remains of its old alliances, as in the case of Saudi Arabia. Other strategic allies, such as Israel, are left out in the cold with the confusion and indecision that has gripped successive US administrations in recent years, making only promises about security commitments of which no one can be certain.
All focus on the Iranian nuclear threat, a real threat whose potential strategic impact on Middle East security cannot be underestimated.
Suffice it to note that Iran’s Shahed-136 drone has a range of more than 2,000 km and can carry a 50-kilogram warhead, reflecting its destructive power against vital civilian targets, as Iran has produced a drone that can fly continuously for 12 hours and has a range of more than 2,000 km since 2018.
About a year ago, Iran announced the development of a drone capable of reaching Haifa and Tel Aviv. According to General Kioumars Heydari, the commander of Iran’s ground forces, the Arash-2 drone was specifically designed to hit Israeli targets, which means that cities in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries are all within range of that line of march.
We believe that the Iranian regime will soon move to increase the use of drones by loyal militias in the region and supply these militias with modern models of these aircraft, exposing everyone in our region to deadly danger.
Even more dangerous, they could be used because the decision to use drones for destructive operations is less straightforward than the decision to resort to a weapon of mass destruction such as a tactical or conventional nuclear bomb. It also makes it easy for Iran to deny responsibility, as it is doing now in response to its role in the Ukraine crisis.
This scenario deserves study, attention, and monitoring by the countries involved so that everyone is not surprised by forests of Iranian-made drones or those based on advanced Iranian technology passed on to militias, or even aircraft smuggled as parts and assembled in operational areas. Drones of various types and durations are Iran’s next weapon to spread chaos and regional unrest.
This is a problem that is difficult to control and address individually and requires effective cooperation among all Gulf states and Israel in terms of intelligence, technology, and weapons. The changing rules of the game in wars require parallel changes in the strategic calculus of states.
The US, still hoping to sign an agreement to resume the nuclear deal, will continue to respond to Iran’s repeated actions, which certainly do not surprise US intelligence circles. But this deepens their confusion so much that they are content to ask the Security Council for a briefing.
