Media close to radical and terrorist organizations and their financiers are buzzing around with the idea that U.S.-Saudi relations will suffer under President-elect Joe Biden’s administration. Their argument starts from comments Biden made during his campaign.
Based on a rigorous analysis of the variables governing these strategic ties, though, one can assume that President Biden’s term in office will only cement the Saudi-US alliance. The so-called changes are the product of wishful thinking, not appreciation of facts and constants undergirding inter-state relations.
Saudi Arabia has confidently signaled no reassessment of its relationship with Washington will take place after the new administration is in office. For the kingdom, that the situation is far from unheard of in relations between two countries.
Presidents, both Democrats and Republicans, often talk in their election campaigns about what is playing out in the relations their country has with historical strategic allies. But things soon change after they enter the White House. They get to know the facts and parameters of this alliance, as well as common underpinnings and interests.
President Biden will not, however, slack off on bilateral relations. But I expect he will reassess the situation in order to strike a new equation for the alliance’s relations.
He will give his personal touch and show his vision of these ties without weakening or hindering them. The reason is simple: there are US strategic interests that cannot be risked or sacrificed.
The kingdom is not a banana republic; the US ally cannot simply flip-flop on it, as some suggest. Saudi Arabia is a key regional partner. It is a member of the G-20.
It has the most weight in blocs wielding a major impact on the global economy and external relations, such as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and the Arab and Islamic group of states, not to mention its spiritual influence among some two billion Muslims, owing to the presence of Muslim holy places in the Kingdom.
For his part, Joe Biden is a seasoned politician with extensive experience in international relations. He is no greenhorn in U.S. foreign policy. He was former Vice President Barack Obama for eight years.
His career confirms that he always tends to be patient and detail-oriented before making critical or crucial decisions, or ones affecting U.S. strategic interests. He is therefore highly unlikely to run the risk of making a wrong move towards the Kingdom before matters are fully looked into.
So I am confident that there will be no major reversals in this vital alliance between the two sides. Let’s recall here the statements of President Trump, who was said that with his departure, the kingdom has lost a powerful ally.
In his campaign, Trump pledged many negative things against the kingdom. But what ultimately happened was that Riyadh was his first destination abroad.
It is then clear, when assessing a situation in IR, that the geopolitical context must be well understood, as it is the most determining factor shaping decision-making. From this point of view, one can understand the rapprochement that prevailed between Washington and Riyadh under the Trump administration.
One can also see the relative divergence that occurred in later stages under the administration of former President Obama. The Iranian nuclear issue has been the most significant strategic variable in the convergence and divergence between the two allies.
President Trump’s understanding of the kingdom’s and the rest of the GCC’s concerns about the Iranian threat helped put relations back on track after a slight interruption, following his predecessor Obama ignoring these concerns by signing a flawed nuclear deal with the Iranian mullahs without listening to Gulf allies.
The point is that it is not so much a matter of personal interests or ties as of national interests. Personal relations grow stronger if there is an agreement on national interests. But they do not go as desired, however, if national priorities diverge.
Certainly, interpersonal relationships and good chemistry come in handy in relationships between leaders. However, success depends on having a basis of common interest.
Take for example the relationship between President Trump and leaders such as Russian President Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. There is a personal consensus between these leaders at the various summits with President Trump. But the consensus did not come close to bridging the gap formed by the divergent interests between Washington, Moscow and Pyongyang.
At the end of the day, Saudi Arabia is a major regional state, a key regional and international player, and an essential partner for the major powers with respect to the Middle East. It has a great historical experience in IR. It can deal with the White House boss, whether he is a Democrat or Republican.
As for the United States, it is the world’s number one power and its President-elect Joe Biden bears the slogan “America is back.” The motto is synonymous with maximizing alliances and networks of strategic interests, not undermining them.
He cannot deliver on his promises to American voters to repair America’s prestige and global influence without the support of major regional powers and key allies, not least Saudi Arabia.
Relations between Saudi Arabia and the United States are therefore on track. History tells us that the ties between the two countries have weathered heavier and tougher challenges.
The partners are still able to find the right formula to move forward and iron out occasional differences. The tactics, tools and mechanisms underpinning the two countries’ alliance can change along the way. But the strategic course of relations will not shift.
Players change. But national interests stay the same.
