In times of global crisis, rare opportunities to restructure international relations equations crop up. After the Second World War, the US emerged as a dominant, wealthy and surefooted superpower.
In doing so, it was able to extend its influence and forge a world order based on the consolidation and domination of American influence. We may say that the global products of this system, with all its institutions and organizations, bear witness to American leadership in the world.
If we compare the parameters of WWII with those of the coronavirus pandemic, one of the most difficult crises the world has experienced since the war, the pandemic created a similar opportunity and background that could lead to a reversal of leadership in China’s favour. China is keen to strengthen its role, assert its global influence and take advantage of the vulnerability and pullback of the US against the backdrop of this crunch.
The spread of the virus has wreaked havoc in the USA, not only in terms of human and economic damage, but also within the American political system itself. Differences are deepening over the checks and balances between the President, Governors and states, and there are unprecedented partisan divides.
Aside from the ability of the US to heal the deep scars of the crisis, pressing questions arise. Is the coronavirus pandemic really an opportunity for the Chinese upswing to act as the alternative to US leadership? Does China want to fill this role in the near future or does it have another strategic vision for the world? Does Beijing see the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic as a unique opportunity to take the lead on the world stage?
To answer these questions, which I believe are central to resolving any relevant debate, we should remember that the aftershocks of the coronavirus crisis are far from being so clear-cut that it can be safely said that they offer China, or other world powers for that matter, an opportunity to supplant the US as the leader of today’s world order.
Uncertainty still surrounds the outcome of the crisis, and scenarios have yet to be worked out. More than that, its economic and strategic repercussions are not yet so glaring to allow for a serious, albeit partial, perception of the future according to most researchers. It is therefore too early to take stock.
The most relevant point now comes down to the end-of-crisis scenario. We are talking about a crisis that may take a few months, just as it may last a year or two. However, everything seems to suggest that the crisis will have profound structural implications for the world order and will push for remaking many international concepts, practices, behaviours, norms and laws.
However, these effects are not so much about losses and victims of the crisis. Rather, they are rooted in negative international practices. Since the beginning of the crisis, the rules of international cooperation and the practices embedded in the mechanisms of globalization and free trade have revealed their serious shortcomings and stark flaws, highlighting how harmful they can be to the national security of States.
Another interesting point in this debate involves China’s vision of what is happening and desire to become the world leader in this historic phase. It should be noted here that it is clear that China sees the crisis as an opportunity to play a greater role and take on a stronger position in the international arena. Such is evident from its intensive aid and cooperation activity with all countries of the world and assistance it is providing to them to deal with the healthcare emergency. However, this does not mean that it wants to go so far as to fill the potential strategic vacuum following the total withdrawal of the US from the leadership of the existing world order.
The wary dragon, as the RAND Corporation called it in one of its famous studies on China’s role in the Middle East, does not rush the idea of competing with the US to lead the globe. The millennial Chinese culture sees things quite differently from the rest of the world.
Beijing has enough patience and strategic reserve to pretend that it is not trying to exploit this crisis to substitute itself for the USA. But China knows very well that the pandemic provides a valuable opportunity to regain the upper hand in the commercial, economic and strategic conflict with President Trump, gain confidence and strengthen its international influence in the face of pressure from the West in recent years.
Its sympathy, support and assistance to Italy and other European countries facing the coronavirus outbreak can help China to break the Western front against it, rebuilding the mental image of the country on the international scene and giving it a moral veneer beyond geopolitical interests.
China can pursue an aid policy of helping economies around the world out of an economic recession that outstrips the financial crisis of 2008, one much like the 1930s Great Depression. If it succeeds in doing so, China will have achieved one of its most significant goals in this crisis, that is, to strike a global strategic balance with the American influence, which will therefore affect US policies towards it in the next phase.
China should focus on continuing the policy of strengthening its global strategic position, which it has pursued rigorously for almost two decades. The country has played a leading role in controlling the euro area debt crisis by buying bonds from debt-burdened countries such as Greece, Portugal and Spain. Its investments in these countries have been stepped up. Add to this its strategic expansion into economies around the world through the new Silk Road, and this crisis will give China the opportunity to move from a defensive position in the face of constant strategic pressure from the US to a balanced position.
But the global influence of the US will not necessarily be challenged. However, China will have the opportunity to take the lead in its complex and sometimes stormy relations with the US. Chinese leaders will thus be able to impose their visions and perceptions in these relations and push Washington to show great flexibility in avoiding the Chinese challenge.
The US Economy cannot easily give up outsourcing activities to Chinese companies. This is borne out by China’s declaration of its readiness to supply medical aid to the US which saw a reduced ability to meet the needs of its population in medical masks, ventilators and test equipment.
Let’s not forget that Western powers are doubling down on the accusations that China is hiding information and data on the victims of the coronavirus crisis. So, China might give greater priority to building international trust and reliability by keeping up health, medical and economic assistance. This will help establish a Chinese brand image tied to moral values rather than strategic interests. That in itself is another brick cementing the Chinese model. This model is intended to be a reliable pillar of future global leadership.
