As is evident, a main cause of the regional chaos and tensions is the political behavior of the Iranian mullahs’ regime since 1979. The point here is not a personal opinion or assessment, but rather the product of several analyses of what has happened in the Middle East over the past decades and years.
The Iranian regime’s lawlessness in political conduct and disregard for the norms of international law has led to sectarian conflicts and unprecedented destabilization in the interests of militias in Arab countries. It was not so long ago that one country boasted of occupying the capitals of four other sovereign States and members of the UN. This is precisely what the mullahs have done in recent years and what their leaders have been broadcasting in the media. They have made mention of their presence in Arab capitals and proclaimed the takeover of a fifth, thus testifying to the magnitude of Iran’s strategic expansion of a highly sectarian nature.
Iranian interference in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and the affairs of other Arab countries is no secret. Therefore, any discussion of the ills of Arab-Iranian relations must start from a precise diagnosis that links the problem and the party at fault, before looking for solutions and ways out of this dilemma. Otherwise, the Iranians’ repeated talk of a ’desire’ to establish normal relations with its Gulf neighbours will be nothing but a strategic deception. There is no room for this deception on the current regional scene saturated by the factors of chaos, tension and threats resulting from the behaviour of a regime which has never shown the slightest desire for peaceful coexistence, commitment to good neighbourliness and respect for the sovereignty of other countries.
The Minister of State for Foreign Affairs of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Adel Al-Jubeir, has judged that the mistake with the Iranian authorities is twofold. He called on Tehran to change its behavior, recalling that the Iranian constitution contains provisions for exporting the revolution. These remarks highlight the origins of the dilemma in our region: the Iranian regime’s convictions, orientations and ideology. In order to spread the premises of the Khomeini revolution, the Iranian regime is resorting to violence, threats and the reign of chaos.
What must be understood is that the slogans of the mullahs’ regime, such as the defense of the oppressed, the liberation of Jerusalem, and the Palestinian cause, are just propaganda headlines. They are intended to win the sympathy of the simple people and serve as a frame of reference for those who march behind the Iranian Supreme Leader and his supporters. In reality, the Iranian regime has caused widespread chaos, the dismantling of Arab countries and the spread of conflict and sectarian crises in those countries. These countries then became a theatre of demographic change for historical reasons: Persian national ambition and the mullahs’ historical hatred of Arabs. It has nothing to do with Jerusalem or the liberation of Palestine, or the defense of the oppressed, or other slogans that still caress the imagination of some people and are spread by the electronic media brigades loyal to Iran in the Arab region.
The few words about the Iranian regime’s willingness to engage in dialogue with Saudi Arabia and the Gulf neighborhood emerged as the chains of siege around the mullahs’ regime’s neck are being tightened, but they will fade away as soon as signs of an unblocking emerge in the mullahs’ relations with the US in particular. The mullahs declare a desire for dialogue when they are in a delicate position and seek to keep the Gulf neighborhood neutral in any extreme conflict with the West. The game is not fooling anyone. There is no real willingness to coexist normally with neighboring countries.
Realistically, under the current conditions, it is difficult for the mullahs to abandon their plans that have become part of the structure of the system. The regime does not really have a development plan capable of giving the Iranian people a little of what they deserve and benefiting from their vast oil and gas resources. Very early on, the mullahs chose to direct the energies of this great country towards the implementation of a rather hallucinated sectarian expansionist ploy. They spent billions of dollars to finance the sectarian militias invading the Arab world, to wage proxy conflicts and wars and to adopt a sort of crisis management tactic.
As soon as they come out of one crisis, the mullahs go into another. Ending the crises will put the Iranian people face to face with reality and hold the regime’s leaders responsible for the fate of the country’s enormous resources. That is why I do not believe that the mullahs are capable of changing their political compass, giving up political and military revolt and turning to political rationality in the interest of millions in Iran. The declared desire for dialogue and other things is nothing more than a short-lived expression of the exacerbation of the sanctions blockade against the regime. The regime then tires of any promise in this regard as soon as there appear to be signs of an unblocking in its relations with the US in particular and the West in general.
Does this mean that there is no hope of building normal relations with the mullahs? The Gulf Cooperation Council countries that have achieved many development aspirations have enough motivation to continue to look for ways to coexist with the Iranian regime. That is what those countries do all the time.
However, it remains for the other side to renounce behaviour that has proved unsuccessful for many years. They are aware of regional and international realities. They need to be aware of local and global realities. Their people and future generations will not forgive them for failing to respect the right of millions of people to live a life worthy of their country’s resources and capabilities. So, the ball is in the court of the mullahs, who must demonstrate good will and sound conduct, not all talk and doublespeak that keeps on shifting between promises and threats.
