I have followed a lot of recent reports and views that consider the candidacy of former Iranian President Ahmadinejad for the upcoming presidential elections as a challenge to the will and instructions of the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
According to some reports and analyses, Ahmadinejad announced last year that he would not run for elections after being advised by the Leader Khamenei who stated that polarization should be avoided in the country. Ahmadinejad went to support his confidant, Hamid Baghaei, in the presidential elections that will take place on May 19. However, Ahmadinejad did submit his candidacy in an attempt to take back the position he held for eight years from 2005 to 2013.
Is Ahmadinejad’s candidacy an unexpected electoral surprise? Will it change the scene and turn expectations upside down? More importantly, is Ahmadinejad’s candidacy a serious step or is it a political manoeuvre?
The answer lies in understanding the dynamics of Iran’s politics and its driving forces, especially the supreme Leader, who considers Ahmadinejad as his “righteous son”. We cannot assume Ahmadinejad’s candidacy comes against Khamenei’s will. We are waiting for the sorting of the names of candidates, which will be carried out by the Guards Council, to ensure that Ahmadinejad is actually nominated. In all cases, we must fully believe that the hierarchy of power and influence in the mullahs’ regime does not allow anyone to challenge the Leader, and that no one is allowed access to a high position contrary to the desire of Khamenei, who controls the political system.
Ahmadinejad’s candidacy is probably just a test message by the mullahs for the international community. The whole world is aware of Ahmadinejad’s sharp style and constant tendency to ignite political and media conflicts. The mullahs try to convince the world that they have reckless ‘options’ in governance and politics that they can use to face the major powers that seek to exert pressure on Iran.
The mullahs sent this message to the US and particularly the Trump administration. In Iran, no one dares to challenge the will of the Leader and his close circle of hardliner conservatives, including Ahmadinejad, one of their favourable icons.
At the moment, it is likely that the role of Ahmadinejad will end with this message and he will get out of the race before it starts, specifically through the constitution council for whatever reason. It is also possible that Ahmadinejad will withdraw despite being approved by the council.
The mullahs still prefer to take a step backward in the face of the Trump administration. Iran is not going to have a reckless person, like Ahmadinejad, deal with the United States during the Trumpian stage because the mullahs are aware of the consequences of such step, while many support Hassan Rouhani for a second term, despite his weak chances to win.
Ebrahim Raisi is one of the prominent candidates in the upcoming Iranian elections. Claiming to be a descendant of the prophet Muhammad (PBUH), Raisi is one of the hard-line mullahs who have had an extensive influence in recent years in Iran. The 77-year-old, who is close to Khamenei and a candidate to succeed the Leader at the time of his death, is now a rival to Rouhani in presidential elections.
Raisi’s presence on the list of candidates represents a major threat to the chances of Rouhani’s re-election. The candidacy of Raisi is under the desire of Khamenei, the country’s ultimate decision-maker, as well as it is a sign to his followers and Iranian state institutions.
Raisi is one of the symbols of violence and abuse in the Iranian regime. However, he oddly raises peaceful slogans while talking about relations with the West, unlike Ahmadinejad. The mullahs are afraid of escalation with the United States at the current stage, and seek calming the situation to absorb the Trump administration’s momentum.
I do not believe Ahmadinejad’s candidacy involves certain seriousness in light of the ferocity of the next round of elections. He is a populist candidate who has not enough supporters to win in the face of strong candidates like Raisi and Rouhani. If Ahmadinejad is approved by the council, it will only be through a green light and blessing by Khamenei and not contrary to his will as alleged by Iranian media reports, which try to make the regime look good. It is enough to say that the council determines the eligibility of each candidate to run for elections, a step that does not exist in any political system claiming democracy in the world
It is true that some conflicts arose within the conservative current, along with controversies among the hardliners, as more and more want their share of the wealth and power at this point of the Revolution. Ahmadinejad cannot violate the recommendation or the advice of the Supreme Leader. Some say that Ahmadineajd’s candidacy is just a recommendation and not an appointment, as if we do not know the nature of the Iranian regime run by an iron fist.
