The Houthi group recently launched a Scud missile at Saudi territory, and that was not strictly for operational purposes. It was destroyed by Saudi Arabia’s rocket-mediated missile Patriot defence system. However, the Houthi media seized the opportunity to try to boost the morale of the group and destabilise the Saudis trust in their leadership, after human losses the group has incurred since the beginning of Decisive Storm Operation, claiming Saudis civilians escaped to Qatar and Bahrain, as if they were sieged. The third objective of this propaganda—not military—act is trying to improve the negotiating position of the Houthis and followers of former Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh before the start of the Geneva negotiations. Saleh militias indeed joined the Houthi group in its attempted failed ground attack on Saudi territory. It is more likely that Saleh fears being excluded from the Geneva talks so he is playing all his cards.
Besides propaganda and psychological warfare, the Houthis do not hold many surprises. Their goal is to try to create a new reality, or at least stir up doubts and confusion about the ability of Saudi-led Arab coalition to resolve the conflict or gain compromises.
The propaganda of the Houthi group and Saleh does not amount to a moral victory as no operational gains were made. The missile offensive is mere media propaganda, nothing more, nothing less.
Some, however, grabbed the bite. Some Houthi supporters celebrated the alleged control of the border crossing point; if that was true, alliance air raids would have bombed them.
Wars have been broadcasted on TV for more than two decades. What is going on in Yemen is action and reaction. The coalition forces are seeking decisive military victory to put on the negotiating table in Geneva, while Shiite militias resort to propaganda to create as much confusion and doubts as possible about security and stability in Yemen to drive the negotiation parties into putting pressure on Saudi Arabia to lessen its demands. Decisive victory is questionable in this kind of military conflicts; equations of military forces and balances are what determine outcomes. The Houthi and Saleh militias have limited mobility now. Since no Coalition troops are present to harvest the results of air strikes and translate them into a reality, it is for now attacks and retreats.
Saleh and Houthi recently formed a hybrid political body they called “the National Front of Resistance to Aggression”. It includes the General People’s Congress led by former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, and the group “Ansar Allah” and the national Baath Socialist party and a number of JMP parties and the National Democratic Alliance. It remains to determine if this body is solid as both main parties to it previously denied any cooperation between them.
The Houthis usually switch sides. Houthi was openly hostile to the Americans but now he boasts negotiating with the US State Department representatives in Amman, considering this a victory. The Supreme Revolutionary Committee of Ansar Allah, which accepted to participate in the Geneva dialogue, has refused a few months to engage in any national dialogue. In a speech in March, Houthis leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi rejected any negotiations under the United Nations, which he described as “supporting terrorism, injustice and arrogance in the world”. Now he has changed his position in what can only be described as arrogance and stubbornness and refusal to admit his loss.
Houthi may continue to switch positions in the Geneva negotiations, which will challenge the alliance between Saleh and al-Houthi, and cooperation may turn into a struggle of interests. The Houthis neglected Saleh when they went to negotiate in Muscat on their own, and they know Saudi Arabia and America want to exclude him completely from the negotiation table, so Houthi may change his mind when he sees advantages.
Nonetheless, the situation in Yemen has become difficult for people. This factor has been used to put pressure on the leaders of the Coalition who care more than others for restoring security and stability and ending the suffering of the people. It seems that the Houthis will not stop making noise, nor Saleh his stupidity. Their propaganda fuels sectarian conflicts. They attack Saudi Arabia without the slightest consideration to the suffering of millions of Yemenis due to the severe crisis they suffered for months. The dilemma in Yemen is not about problem-solving or political alternatives, but mainly the respect to international legitimacy that should be imposed on the Houthis putschists and followers of Saleh, as they have turned against the Gulf initiative and the resolutions of international legitimacy. Nothing guarantees they will respect the outcomes of the Geneva negotiations which offered no solutions in a similar crisis in Syria.
