Opinion & Analysis

The mullahs’ game: The Gaza-Vienna connection

It is true that the recent bloody confrontations between the Palestinians and Israel started from the principle of the Palestinians’ legitimate defense of their land and rights.

But there was a thread connecting what was happening in Gaza with the negotiation in Vienna between representatives of the mullah regime and the five major powers that signed the 2015 nuclear deal, as well as American negotiators in the corridors and elsewhere. They have not yet been directly involved in the negotiations.

To be sure, the mullah regime, specifically the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, has not been directly involved in the confrontations between the Palestinians and Israel. But it has made a point of appearing publicly on the scene of the conflict, displaying muscle, and even speaking out about its role in arming Palestinian organizations, and in the accumulation of missile arsenals.

The aim: strengthening Iran’s negotiating position in Vienna and increasing the pressure on the Biden administration to make the major concessions Tehran wants.

Iran wants to affirm its role in shaping the rules of regional security and stability. Most importantly, it wants to emphasize its impact on the security and stability of Israel, the United States’ major traditional ally. The mullahs remind of their ability to “create” trouble and problems for President Biden’s administration.

The latter had shown full and unconditional strategic support for Israel in the face of rocket fire from Palestinian organizations. The mullahs’ regime is using similar and convergent tactics in the various regional hotbeds of tension. On the eve of the Vienna talks, it has incited the Houthi group to increase their missile attacks against Saudi Arabia.

This happened almost simultaneously with Iraqi mediation efforts, which recently resulted in “exploratory” talks between the Saudi and Iranian sides. The mullahs seem to have wanted to kill two birds with one stone. On the one hand, to put pressure on the Saudi side to speed up the dialogue with Iran.

On the other, to remind Western negotiators in Vienna of Iran’s ability to harm US allies in the Middle East and spread chaos and unrest. These tactics were applied, at least that’s how it seemed, in the turmoil in Gaza, to underscore the effectiveness of the so-called axis of resistance led by the Iranian regime.

In addition, the mullahs want to spoil plans to normalize relations between Israel and other Arab countries. At least, they want to postpone these plans indefinitely, given the sensitivity of announcing any peace steps between Israel and the official Arab parties at the current stage. The Iranians have been remarkably keen to express their role in the Gaza unrest.

A strong sign of this was the remarks of Major General Hossein Salami, commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, broadcast on Iranian state television.

Iran “supports the Palestinians’ war against Israel and their emergence as a missile-armed nation,” he said. This statement is similar to the IRGC’s official acknowledgement, for the first time, of its role in arming the Yemeni Houthi group with sophisticated missiles. That’s not it.

General Salami’s statements implied an acknowledgement of Iranian responsibility for the bombing of a missile factory, a refinery in Haifa, and a fire at an Israeli aviation plant in response to the sabotage of the Iranian nuclear facility in Natanz.

The connection the mullahs have made between what happened in Gaza and what is happening in Vienna is clear and comes with objectives. But it raises legitimate questions about the seriousness of the mullahs’ kidnapping of the Palestinian cause.

Hamas’ words of gratitude to Iran and its Supreme Leader, as expressed by its leader Ismail Haniyeh, for supporting Gaza, bring the defenders of this just cause into the trap of the Iranian regime. It becomes but another number in the Mullahs’ complex calculations in the Middle East.

The mullahs may make some political and strategic gains by declaring their support for the Palestinians in Gaza. But the heavy loss awaits a just cause for which many have sacrificed and fought wars throughout history. Palestinian officials should reconsider their compass if they truly seek to defend the legitimate rights of their people.

Another thing, the recent clashes in Gaza have brought the “image battle” back to the forefront. They have opened the door wide for detractions by some regional parties, namely Iran and Turkey, supported by militant organizations and groups.

These parties are hijacking the Palestinian cause and want to monopolize the discourse in the name of the Palestinians amid the absent role of the Palestinian Authority and its weak current leadership. Had Egypt’s diplomatic efforts failed to contain the military escalation, things would have taken another unwanted turn.

Arabs must also be aware of the new reality of the Palestinian question. They must support the efforts to seek a final and real peace so as not to leave the opportunity to the detractors and hijackers.

 

Dr. Salem Alketbi

Dr. Salem Alketbi is an Emirati political analyst and researcher whose work explains the forces reshaping the Middle East. He holds a PhD in Public Law and Political Science, awarded with highest distinction and a recommendation for publication, from Hassan II University in Casablanca. His thesis examined political and religious propaganda on Arab social media. His columns, published in Arab and international outlets, focus on Gulf security, Iran, countering extremism, and the UAE’s vision of a stable, prosperous region built on cooperation.

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