It is with much concern that I have read the calls by some analysts and observers for Egypt to intervene militarily in the Libyan crisis. Despite my full confidence in the wisdom and acumen of the Egyptian leadership, under the leadership of His Excellency President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, I feel that my duty is to speak out about some of the things that may be misperceived in this crisis.
The situation in Libya is no doubt rapidly drifting towards a scenario that the Arab countries, including Egypt, do not wish to see. Egypt is particularly affected by the proliferation of terrorists, extremists and mercenaries brought to its neighbours by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The latter intends to plant a painful thorn in the side of this beloved Arab country.
There is also no doubt that decisions on war are not made in haste. Best placed to know this are those who have a rational and calm leadership and who are well aware of the meaning, demands and consequences of war in such circumstances.
In general, decisions in war are subject to one main determinant. This is the strategic environment of the conflict, with military, political, economic and security components.
The position of the Egyptian leadership is very delicate. They want to protect the enormous progress made in Egypt in recent years to bring the country out of the depression and put it in a dignified position. Any national leadership, under such circumstances, must not risk opening a front of conflict with a reckless enemy whose aim is to trap it in an adventure against terrorists from Syria and other regions.
But avoiding the Libyan trap is not the overriding reason for Egypt’s decision towards Libya. In fact, the list of Egyptian strategic priorities currently includes, in my view, hierarchically the threat related to the failure to reach agreement on the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and the approaching date for the start of the filling of the dam announced by the Ethiopian side, followed by the complete elimination of the health threat to Egyptian national security due to the spread of the coronavirus, which poses a serious threat to the Egyptian economy.
This holds true even though the number of victims and deaths is limited in comparison with other countries with comparable conditions and populations. However, the continued health risk is weighing on the Egyptian economy’s ability to sustain growth and recover. Thus, restoring growth factors and preventing the possible emergence of an epidemic is a top priority for Egypt’s strategic decision-making at this stage.
Libya is an exceptionally sensitive issue for Egypt. This is the case not only because of the direct geographical proximity and the common border, approximately 1,150 km long, but also because of the additional risk resulting from Turkey’s direct intervention and its deep desire to harm Egypt by playing the card of financing terrorism and supporting its elements in order to infiltrate Egypt and carry out terrorist operations undermining security and stability.
There are other calculations and considerations of interest in this regard. But the fact that direct Egyptian military intervention is not an inevitable decision unless the Egyptian leadership sees that developments on the ground warrant early intervention to resolve the issue and avert the danger.
In all objectivity, and out of concern for the resources of an Arab country as important as Egypt, I am led to say that maximum patience must be shown in the face of the Turkish Sultan’s recklessness if his adventure in Libya is to be stopped.
Indications and evidence point out that the adventure will be a graveyard for his political life, which has been full of disasters. The land of Omar Mukhtar will not lend itself to the Sultan’s dreams. The Libyan people will not accept the submission of Al-Sarraj and his mob, who have rejected all earnest initiatives to resolve the Libyan crisis, the latest of which is the Egyptian initiative.
The Egyptian initiative is a bright glimmer of hope for a safe outcome that restores security and stability to the Libyan people and preserves the sovereignty and territorial integrity of this Arab country.
There are several alternatives and solutions to counter the Turkish incursion into Libya, which must remain a unified Arab country, so that the region does not lose its balance and the door is wide open to other conflicts and crises.
The Arab collective must quickly confront the States members of the Security Council with their inaction in the face of Turkey’s flagrant violation of the Council resolution prohibiting the arming of the parties to the Libyan conflict, demand that they support the Egyptian peace initiative and force the Al-Sarraj Government, which has enjoyed international support for so long, to comply with the will of the global collective.
The world must be aware of the danger of Libya becoming a new hotbed of terrorist organisations. Daesh’s resurrection in Libya will entail an enormous loss of security and stability not only for Egypt or other Arab countries, but also for the entire world.
The parties that remain silent will be the first to foot the bill for this new desolation. Hunting terrorists in a territory as vast as Libya will cost the world dearly. In addition, the crisis of illegal immigration is escalating.
The world should therefore be aware of the danger of allowing the Turkish Sultan to play with the destiny of Syria and Libya, finance terrorist militias, wage proxy war and threaten the security and stability of the entire Middle East.
