Just as the coronavirus is raging around the world, its human and economic ramifications are giving rise to new strategic shifts that will reshape the way international relations work. Business management systems in countries around the world are being restructured.
In the confusion that reigns in most countries struggling with a massive health threat, good international cooperation is losing territory to the bad, self-interested side of globalization.
All the clichés about international cooperation and solidarity have come down to political protocol detached from the harsh reality. The coronavirus has revealed that the current world order is leaderless. The so-called hierarchical system, whether monopolar or multipolar, makes not much sense.
The world has been shipwrecked in the face of this viral deluge. Its post-war international and regional organizations, spearheaded by the UN, have been disrupted.
We have not heard much from the EU. Surprisingly, the mechanisms for cooperation and interdependence between the countries of the euro zone slackened. As a result, regional organisations, whose meetings and statements dominated media reports all year round, have taken a back seat.
Disputes and mutual accusations dominated the landscape of international relations in the midst of a crisis unlike any the world has ever known. There is much talk of plots, disputes and rifts between the major powers, sometimes in obnoxious ways.
At a time when humanity needs solidarity and cooperation, discord is being unleashed and accusations are multiplying. No country or region makes an exception.
What will be the new strategic parameters bring about? How will the map of global domination and influence be in the years and decades to come?
Many expect the coronavirus epidemic to increase the influence of such global powers as China and Russia. They even foresee regional systems such as the EU breaking down. But I believe that these conclusions are premature. The constants that have long governed international relations still apply.
Decidedly, the US has not lived up to its expected role as the sole superpower dominating the modern world order.
Its health care system was unprepared to meet the challenge of the COVID-19 pandemic. In fact, the US topped the list of countries most severely burdened by the outbreak. But all this has less to do with having an objective assessment of the factors determining the might and dominance of the major powers.
The other major powers have not escaped this new threat either. China is still suffering, although less than before, and has been able to come forward to help others. Nonetheless, the Chinese have already suffered the consequences of the outbreak long before the others.
In any case, what is important to look at is not only the losses incurred, but also the ability of countries to cope with the risk, tackle its effects and emerge from the crisis with as few losses as possible. All this remains to be discovered. The crisis is still ongoing. Knowing how things will unfold and work out is not so easy.
Perhaps it is too early to reach reliable conclusions based on normative comparisons of the performance of countries, their institutions and their economies in the face of this exceptional global crisis. Most of the views currently being expressed on the structure of the global post-coronavirus system are a matter of wishful thinking. They are not based on facts. In reality, the crisis is far from over; it may be just beginning. No point in drawing conclusions.
Admittedly, the epidemic has revealed profound institutional dysfunctions in countries at the top of development lists. But this will push the world to redefine progress. It will push the world to rethink the taken-for-granted constants so often referred to in the corridors of global institutions.
One thing is for sure, the post-coronavirus world will not function under the same mechanisms, norms and rules. Things will not be the same in international relations. We have seen how China stood out and was a front-row supporter of Italy when its neighbours stood back. The phones in Rome did not ring any calls from the transatlantic allies. The country was almost alone in the face of a large-scale threat to all its people.
