Since the assassination of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani in a US Military strike in Iraq, I was sure that the Iranian mullahs have very complicated calculations in the face of President Trump’s decision to kill the general. Soleimani was mistaken in his decision to besiege the US Embassy in Baghdad and order the Iraqi popular mobilization militia to strike one of the US Bases in Iraq, causing the death of an American contractor. This mistake by Soleimani is not related to the usual calculations of strategic analysis. But it is due to the fact that he crossed a crucial red line.
In his dealings with the mullahs’ regime, President Trump’s first red line was “American blood. ” On several occasions, President Trump repeatedly said that targeting an American soldier would be enough to justify a direct American military response to Iran. Clearly, President Trump does not want to go to war. But this time he wanted to kill two birds with one stone.
Deciding to get rid of Soleimani has not gone out of fashion, as some analysts believe. Proof that President Trump did not fall into the trap of a hasty military response when Iran shot down an American MQ-4C Triton drone over the Straits of Hormuz in January 2019. According to strategic military calculations, the event was not at all normal. It was a direct military challenge to the US.
This is the most advanced plane in American technology. Its speed reaches 331 knots (613 km/h). It costs about $220 million and carries high definition spy devices. It can fly at altitudes of up to 50,000 feet (15.2 km). The aircraft can also fly without returning to its bases for 24 continuous hours. It provides ground bases with information that it monitors while exploring hostile sites. For US Military industries, the aircraft is an icon of technological excellence. Falling into the hands of enemies of the US could have bad consequences.
At the time, President Trump did not react to the actions of the Iranian mullahs, which were implemented by the Revolutionary Guards. Of course, dozens, if not hundreds of articles and analyses have been published on the decline, defeat or failure of the US in the face of the Iranian challenge. But everyone has ignored President Trump’s red lines. Since his arrival in the presidency, Trump has decided that the murder of a US Soldier is the reason that will motivate him to wage a direct military struggle against the enemies of the US. Thus, the US, the world’s first superpower, does not move according to narrow, temporary or hasty strategic calculations. On the contrary, it has red lines, some of which are declared, while others are certainly not.
At the time, the strategic outcome accounts called for a delay in responding to Iran and postponing any military action. Perhaps the strongest justification expected by the US Administration came after the UAV was shot down. General Soleimani not only crossed the red line in directing the raids that killed an American contractor in northern Iraq, he also made a mistake in laying siege to the American embassy in Baghdad.
The idea of laying siege to the embassy, among the largest and most heavily fortified in the world, evokes something that successive American administrations may not have forgotten. The American hostage crisis in Iran in 1979 was the tumultuous incident that lasted 444 days. It was and will remain a turning point in the history of Iranian-American relations. The siege of the US Embassy in Tehran, which Khomeini described as “a greater revolution than the first revolution” (the one that overthrew the Shah’s regime), cost former President Jimmy Carter the presidential election.
This blockade has raised real concerns in the US about the recurrence of this crisis in Iraq at a very bad time for President Trump. President Trump is facing an internal crisis because of congressional investigations into allegations of abuse of power for his own benefit and an attempt to obstruct Congress. Therefore, the scenario of a siege of the American embassy in Baghdad, if it turned into another hostage crisis, would put President Trump in a very critical internal situation. He would have been forced to resign in the year of the presidential elections.
Despite their awareness of the differences in military and strategic balance, the Iranian mullahs have fallen into the trap of direct confrontation with the US because of hubris, the main cause of their repeated mistakes.
