US President Donald Trump is unlikely to be impeached from office under the current US Senate composition. But this “obstacle” does not preclude attention to the aftermath of investigations by Democrats who control the House of Representatives in order to impeach Trump on misconduct charges. This is an interesting development because we are talking about the president of the most powerful country in the world and the global pole that dominates international decision-making.
The essence of the accusations relates to the suspicion that President Trump has tried to pressure his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky, to conduct an investigation about his potential rival in the presidential election Joe Biden. Trump says Joe Biden, who was vice president in Barack Obama’s administration, pressed for the dismissal of Ukrainian Attorney General Viktor Shokin in 2016 to protect a company where his son Hunter Biden works. Details of a July 25 call by President Trump with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelinsky will be revealed.
Zelensky insisted in a speech alongside Trump, that he was not “pressured” by Trump during the contact between them. President Trump initially described the House of Representatives’ interrogation as a “joke.” Trump pointed out that the reasons given against him are “sad” and based on “hoax.” “It’s a joke. Impeachment, for that?” But he came back in a video posted on Twitter, “The Democrats […] want to take away your freedom […] They’re trying to stop me, because I’m fighting for you.”
The fact is that it is unlikely that the US House of Representatives investigation will result in the removal of Trump from the White House, even if the House of Representatives support this step. They will be blocked in the Republican-controlled Senate.
The Democrats certainly looked into the possibilities of passing the impeach measures, and are well aware that they will not pass through both houses of Congress. It will not end with impeaching the president. But it may end up challenging his policy, tarnishing his image and turning him into a lame duck in the last year of his first term.
Democrats have failed to prove allegations of Russian interference in 2016 in the US elections for Trump against his then rival Hillary Clinton. They are pushing this time a different issue. Democrats claim that Trump has used the powers of the presidency to pressure the president of Ukraine to get information that harms his rival Biden, the top Democratic candidate for the presidency for next year.
Biden will face Trump in the race to reach the White House. Early showdown may affect the outcome of the US presidential race.
In addition to Democrats in the House of Representatives, there are several parties to Trump’s opponents in this round, including the Washington Post and other US media. President Trump accuses the media of being “fake.”
There is a constitutional mechanism to deal with any US president accused of illegal or immoral acts. The impeachment procedure is adopted by the majority of the House of Representatives even if the President is convicted of impeachable crime by the agreement of the majority of the House of Representatives paving the way for his dismissal by a two-thirds majority vote of the US Senate.
Some analysts see the move as an adventure by Democrats as well. They say that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has already considered that the move would be meaningless with a Republican majority controlling the Senate, and could even damage the electoral opportunities of Democrats in moderate congressional circles.
Profit and loss calculations for Democrats are very important. They appear to have opted to weaken President Trump, whose chances of winning the next race seem high.
So the Democrats’ move is aimed primarily at reducing these chances. The initiation of investigations into the House of Representatives and the conviction of President Trump in the House will be hindered in the Senate because two-thirds of the 100 members do not approve the president’s impeachment.
The integrity of the president may be affected ahead of the elections. But since the beginning of his presidency, President Trump has escaped accusations of violating the election law and gaining Russian support to win the presidential election that brought him to power. Trump later escaped accusations of paying a pornographic actress in exchange for silence and not publishing what happened between them. But the president could emerge from this political crisis stronger than before, especially if the recordings prove nothing that actually condemns him. Then his victory in the next presidential election will be almost guaranteed.
Interesingly, some in the Arab media are trying to convince the public that Trump’s impeachment is a done deal. But the truth is that the issue is a political struggle using democratic tools, and the statistics are clear and the result is known. Aside from the impeachment scenario, bipartisan gains and losses will be determined by the results of investigations and how the two sides will use them.
