After the official confirmation by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that Iran has exceeded the 300 kg low-enriched uranium production limit set in the 2015 nuclear deal with the P5+1, the mullahs are on the verge of a face-off against the world.
The agreement, which has been violated by the regime, provides, in the event of a violation of its provisions, for the return of the possibility of multilateral sanctions against Iran. Iran’s blatant disregard for the agreement is a further step towards taking the Gulf region to a new phase of tension.
It is no longer acceptable for the major powers – along with the United States – to remain silent about Iran’s arrogance and defiance. The agreement, which stipulates that Iran will retain up to 300 kilograms of low-enriched uranium, is now a thing of the past.
IAEA confirmed the violation of this clause and the Iranian Foreign Minister has officially announced that uranium stocks have exceeded the requirements of the agreement in response to US sanctions.
The mullahs’ regime has left no room for action for the main signatories of this agreement. It has put everyone in a bad place, betting that it will push them to exert as much pressure as possible on the United States to lift sanctions against Iran or to risk breaking American sanctions and buying Iranian oil. This placed countries like China in front of a hard choice with which they can only remain silent until the American-Iranian confrontation is over.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has given the remaining parties to the nuclear agreement – Britain, France, Germany, China and Russia – until July 1 to fulfil their obligations to protect Iran from the consequences of US sanctions. Iran’s announcement of the violation of the agreement is a formal declaration that the deal is dead.
The Iranian violation affects the most important part of the agreement, the limit of highly enriched uranium allowed. So now, the situation makes it possible for these countries to re-impose international sanctions, which were cancelled by the United Nations under Security Council resolution 2231.
US President Donald Trump described Iran’s actions as “playing with fire,” while the White House said that “The United States and its allies will never allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons.” He said the United States continues to exert “maximum pressure” to force Tehran to abandon its nuclear ambitions.
I think the response to Iran’s violation of the nuclear agreement only came into force when the Iranian regime felt a real danger to its fate and chances of staying in power in Iran. Furthermore, this regime will keep extorting the international community and violating international agreements and laws.
What is for sure is that the American sanctions will bear fruit. However, the effects may be felt months later, especially after the end of the upcoming presidential elections, and the big potential for President Trump winning a second term. By then, he will be bolder and more ready to launch a military strike against Iran.
But the Iranian regime is well aware of all this. They do not want to wait, and they are trying to put President Trump in a tight spot right now. The mullahs know very well that the White House is currently in a delicate situation and is not ready to go to war before the presidential elections.
The Iranian equation is either war now or immediate lifting of US sanctions and start of negotiations. It is a nail-biting game that is likely to get more intense in the next short period of time. The ball is now in the court of the international powers that signed the agreement and not only in President Trump’s court.
Iran’s violation of the nuclear agreement was an insult and a disregard for these countries’ efforts to maintain the agreement. Some of them show that they understand Iran’s position in response to the US one-sided retreat from the deal. But this response is certainly an insult to the other signatories of the agreement and a disregard for their international strategic weight and influence.
An international realignment is needed in the face of this blatant Iranian blackmail, so that the mullahcracy understands that the language of intimidation is no longer tolerated in 21st century international relations.
