At the end of 2015, Turkey shot down a Russian Sukhoi Su-24 fighter jet on the Syrian-Turkish border. Many were expecting Russia to retaliate and some predicted a war between the two countries, especially after President Putin described the incident as “a stab in the back by the terrorists’ accomplices”, warning of “serious consequences” for the incident on bilateral relations.
Russia did not retaliate, nor did it double down amid public pressure and global expectations that war might break out or that at least Russia will respond with “an eye for an eye.”
At the time, Russian President Vladimir Putin, formerly a member of the intelligence and security community seemed obviously composed. He has set strategic priorities that would achieve his country’s goals beyond what could be achieved through an angry, emotional response. That’s what happened. Sensing Turkey’s desire to win Russia back and also its anger towards repeated NATO “insults”, Putin made Turkey a partner in Syria, not an enemy—especially after German troops left the Incirlik air base and the Turkey–US relations melt down.
President Putin has achieved critical strategic goals in managing the crisis after the incident, gaining Turkey as a tactical ally in Syria, and deepening skepticism with NATO which has long viewed the country as a buffer wall against Russia..
President Putin adopted the same approach in the crisis of the Russian plane shot down by Israeli fighter jets recently; Russia did not react to appease the angry Russian public opinion, especially since the number of victims is higher this time..
In the first incident the Russian fighter was carrying two people, while the fighter that was shot down by Israelis had 15 Russian military experts on board.
However, the Russian reaction was not really different, athough stronger, especially from the Kremlin, putting Israel in constant anticipation of a Russian reaction that would not come very soon..
The Israelis were in total confusion after the incident, said Alex Fishman, a military analyst in the Israeli daily Yedioth Ahronoth, saying that the Russians realized that they could achieve political gains from this incident, so they did not respond, but waited 12 hours to analyze what happened, and then came up with the sharp statement that created the atmosphere of a political-military crisis between Israel and Russia, culminating in a conversation between Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu and Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman, in which he held Israel responsible for the crash.
The pattern of President Putin’s crisis management is turning the crisis into a strategic opportunity, carefully weighing in to optimize political gains, not populist ones.
It might cost some prestige at first but the aggregate gains are what matters on the long run..
