There are several indications that Iran’s mullahs have a real concern about their exclusion from the upcoming negotiations about an international deal about Syria. The latest variable for Iran’s position in Syria is the threats made by its pro-Shiite organizations against Israel. The spokesman of the Nujaba organization stated that he is ready for the liberation of the Syrian Golan if Assad asked him to. An Iranian Revolutionary Guards’ official said that the organization can destroy Israel, while one of the leaders of the Iraq Shiite Mobilization spoke about the formation of some battalions to liberate the Golan. It is a series of successive bizarre statements in the light of the recent Iranian intervention in Syria, which was not close to the Golan. Why are these organizations speaking now of the Golan?
It is obvious that the US president Donald Trump actually tends to adopt the strategy of encirclement and containment against Iran. The idea of direct confrontation with it was totally dropped. The most effective option is to reduce Iran’s influence in Syria and Iraq. This makes the mullahs get extremely alarmed by the possibility of losing their efforts over recent years and wasting billions of dollars on expansion plans, in addition of losing the lives of thousands of people. But this regime does not care about such losses, because it brings mercenaries from other countries and pushes them to fight under flags of the Revolutionary Guards.
Russian-American cooperation in Syria is an incontestable fact. There are pieces of evidence which confirm that Russia ignores Iranian allies when necessary. Hence, the threats of the pro-Iranian Shiite organizations against Israel are aimed to directly drag the Israelis into the conflicts in Syria. Israel has not been away from the fierce war taking place at its borders.
Iranian attempts to bring Israel to Syria are in vain. Russia and the US will not allow Israel’s direct intervention to make the situation in Syria more complicated. The only alternative is to keep the interests and security of Israel safe through chasing Iranian militias away from its borders, and perhaps from Syria.
Daesh is nearing its end in Syria and Iraq and its defeat is only a matter of time, which is determined by the major powers according to their interests. Israel will not remain silent about the Iranian presence in its borders with Syria. They do not want to have the same experience of Hezbollah and the borders with Lebanon. The clash between the United States and Iran will not take place in the Gulf region or on the Iranian territory probably. The two sides are implicitly employing the strategy of proxy war so that one of them can tame the other during the upcoming phase.
Iranian-American conflict may move to Syria. The war against terrorism may be directed against Iran and its Shiite militias instead of ISIS. Iran would never retreat from the confrontation with the United States since it is taking place far from its territory. The mullahs are good at strategies of proxy war. They have invested very significant resources in expanding in a relatively short period of time without precise strategy calculations for the fate of expansion and survival in the face of international and regional complex pressure.
The Trump administration wants to reduce Iran’s influence in Iraq. The struggle over this country will be strong after Washington is reconsidering interest in Iraq’s oil, while Iran has became strong at the politic, economic, demographic and security levels. The mullahs will not let Iraq be an easy prey for others.
