Experts and pundits note that coverage and analysis of GCC policies has increased in the US media. This is a strong indicator of the growing influence and weight of these countries in international relations. The Gulf is no longer just about oil, as some Western politicians imagine.
Rather, events have shown that these states play a central role in global balance calculations and the struggle for influence on the current or future world order. There are constants and variables in the ongoing debate about the GCC and the dynamics and drivers of politics in these countries.
One of the constants in our region is the relentless desire and constant effort to achieve security and stability in this region, surrounded by tensions on all sides. The Iranian neighborhood is really a powder keg that can explode at any moment because of the internal tensions and the external fronts that the Iranian regime is intervening in.
This is happening for reasons that have absolutely nothing to do with the real strategic interests of the Iranian state and people.
In the Gulf states, especially the UAE and Saudi Arabia, which are the common denominators in Western media reports, no voice is louder than that of very ambitious development plans and competition for investment, localization of technology, and joining global competitiveness in various fields.
It is an extraordinary situation of building, developing and using resources to achieve goals and returns that is characteristic not only of the Gulf region but also of many countries around the world.
There are millions of foreign workers belonging to all countries in the world without exception, and what that means, whether in terms of indirect employment opportunities effortlessly added to these economies, direct remittances, or the strong presence of large and transcontinental companies that are the development partners of the Gulf countries.
One of the most remarkable variables in this region is the policy of the great powers, which allow themselves to move closer to their Gulf partners when they want to, when their interests are realized, and to move away from them when they want to and when their interests are incompatible, or so it seems to them.
This reality has emerged at a time when the growing strategic ambitions of the countries in the region are generating new strategic realities, most notably the difficulty of relying on a single strategic partner in the face of multiple centers of global technological superiority and the bitter technical and economic conflict between the industrially, technologically, scientifically, economically and militarily advanced countries.
This has made diversification of partnerships and alliances an indispensable strategic imperative for those who want to keep pace with world events and technology, maintain security, and increase stability. Maintaining balanced relations with major international powers is not an option, but an inescapable necessity for an influential regional state like the UAE.
Following his important visit to Russia, we see HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, President of the UAE, speaking via video conference with US President Joe Biden. They talked about the historic friendship and strategic partnership between the two countries and how to support it.
In particular, the conversation focused on the UAE-US comprehensive clean energy investment initiative, advancing shared climate goals, and global energy security. The initiative aims to invest $100 billion to generate an additional 100 gigawatts of clean energy in the two countries and in developing countries by the end of 2035.
This reflects a unique diplomatic ability to strike balances and maintain unique margins of maneuver, even between rivals or even strategic adversaries.
To analyze this kind of maneuvering and balanced relations, one needs to be familiar with several things, including the intelligence of the leadership, which, especially in these difficult circumstances, without excess or carelessness, has been able to maintain the principles on which the UAE’s foreign policy is built.
None of this is a matter of personal diligence, as it is institutionalized within the Fiftieth Principles document published in 2019. Familiarity with these issues and aspects makes clear what is happening away from an interpretation taken out of context.
There is certainly no contradiction in simultaneously maintaining a strategic partnership with the US and proactively preparing for possible structural changes in the world order and the balance of power therein. Nor is it inconsistent to maintain a partnership with the US in parallel with a similar partnership with China and Russia based on different interests and goals.
The diversity of interests and areas of international cooperation no longer allows for a single path or framework. Interests overlap, intersect, and parallel each other in very complex patterns. We are not talking about new fronts or alliances or a retreat from established traditional alliances.
Rather, we are talking about keeping pace with changes on a global scale. The reality of the US-China relationship itself is undeniable, as evidenced by trade statistics that show a steady increase to about $756 billion in 2021, up 28 percent from the previous year.
The strategic expansion of China and Russia in the Gulf region should not come as a surprise and does not necessarily reflect new options in the Gulf. The strategic interests of the two powers require increased cooperation with Gulf partners.
As we have said, this is the result of the fact that the Gulf is no longer just about oil, but about a wide network of interests, cooperation, and exchanges with regional and major powers. In this context, we can also consider Israel, which has become a partner of the UAE in various economic, industrial and scientific fields within the framework of the comprehensive economic partnership.
This is not to say that it replaces anyone, but the two sides are converging in many ways in the geopolitical space created by new competitive development ambitions. All in all, the only constant in the world today is change. The world is in an accelerated state of strategic change in which it is difficult to develop precise ideas about its course and outcomes.
Nations that are highly dynamic and flexible in different frameworks, political, diplomatic, economic, etc., strive to keep up with what is happening around them, trying to maximize and exploit opportunities, reduce the impact of challenges and avoid their risks and possible consequences.
