There is no denying that the GCC countries are concerned about the strategic vision of President Joe Biden’s administration regarding the Iran nuclear deal. The relations between the Gulf countries and Washington are not better under the presidency of Joe Biden. At least that is the case so far.
But a careful and objective analysis of facts suggests that the issue is no longer so much about the change of American president as about an institutional – rather than personal – change in the strategic vision about the US role in the Gulf region.
This is evidenced by the fact that former President Donald Trump’s term in office did not see a rapprochement with the Gulf partners as in the past. This, despite a kind of US understanding of the Gulf’s vision of regional security and stability, especially vis-à-vis the Iranian threat.
This sort of understanding was motivated by Trump’s rejection of the nuclear deal, not a support for the position of the Gulf partners. The answer that everyone in the region is asking is: What happened?
Here the question is about the drivers and dynamics of the strategic partnership between the GCC countries and the US, with a view to building realistic approaches that can provide fresh impetus to this important partnership for both sides, and to overcome any misunderstanding or doubts on either side.
To answer the many questions raised in this regard, we must admit that the American strategic vision of the Gulf region has somewhat changed. This is due to factors such as shale oil, the rise of China, among others.
The idea that the Biden administration is rehashing the positions of former President Obama does not hold water because it does not take into account the institutionality of American foreign policy. Foreign policy is not the monopoly of the master of the White House, whether Democrat or Republican.
The president has a political and military margin of manoeuvre that is difficult to overstep, so he remains largely fettered by the role of other institutions, notably Congress. In addition, there are security institutions authorized to develop the strategic vision of the United States on the global level.
This prevents certain red lines from being crossed to the point of harming major US interests. In these terms, can it be said that the United States, and more specifically current President Joe Biden’s administration, is about to sacrifice its allies and partners in the GCC countries in order to return to the nuclear deal with Iran? The answer is no.
The vast and complex web of strategic interests that binds Washington to its GCC partners, and conversely, is probably no reason for anyone to say that this partnership could disintegrate or even weaken, or that it is losing weight.
What is clear here, however, is that there is a state of concern, particularly on the part of the GCC countries, but with the aim of achieving new understandings and new foundations for this partnership in light of the current geopolitical scene. On the side of the GCC countries themselves, their network of alliances is no longer the same.
There is a new reality in the foreign policies of these countries, collectively and individually, with the emergence of new strategic partnerships with international and regional powers and emerging economies, including China, Russia, South Korea, India, the EU and others.
There have also been breakthroughs in the planning and structuring within these countries to integrate into the fabric of global technological developments and to play a competitive role in global technological and economic mobility.
A few years ago, no one could have imagined this fruitful move and cooperation between the UAE and Israel, for example, in the scientific, technological, industrial, health, agricultural and other fields. We are witnessing a new geopolitical reality in the region. It is not yet a complete story.
There are strategic expectations that could come to light in the near future. The notion of an exclusive partnership with a single great power is no longer realistic. Pluralism is the order of the day, with all its requirements, and the changes in visions and interests, as well as in political, economic, and even military and security behaviors.
There is every reason to believe that the region, and indeed the entire world, is undergoing concrete strategic shifts. This goes beyond the important agreements between Arab countries and Israel to establish official bilateral relations. There is a clear way out of the tensions between Turkey and major Arab countries such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
There are media reports of Iraqi mediation to bridge the Saudi-Iranian divide, and a reconciliation agreement is slowly moving forward between the Arab Quartet and Qatar. There is a way forward for the resolution of the Syrian and Libyan crises. Saudi Arabia has shown a clear willingness to resolve the Yemeni crisis politically.
Russia’s rapprochement with the countries of the region is happening, and much more that can be described as a prelude to the post-Covid world. The truth is that the US-Gulf partnership will remain important to both sides. It is difficult for either side to give it up.
The GCC countries remain a major player not only in global energy markets, but in the entire global economy. The world needs huge investments in the coming years to manage the effects of the pandemic.
Certainly, President Biden’s handling of the issue of returning to the nuclear deal with Iran is not the only variable that governs his country’s relations with the GCC countries. The very idea of a return, despite its ambiguous connotations, does not provide a complete answer as to how Washington intends to deal with Iranian threats.
There is still much to be done in the post-US return. An analysis of the recent positions of President Biden’s administration shows a gradual return to American realism, but also a progressive abandonment of the zeal of the election campaign. It is worth recalling here the statement by US Secretary of State Tony Blinken.
Blinken said that the United States should continue to work with Saudi Arabia “whether we like it or not,” stressing that the kingdom remains an important partner for his country in many respects. The crown prince [Prince Mohammed bin Salman] will likely be the leader of that country for a long time to come and “we must work with leaders from around the world,” he said.
This statement parallels another important statement by Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. He said his country’s foreign policy is based on the kingdom’s interests, noting that there is a 90% agreement between the Saudis and President Joe Biden’s administration. “The United States is a strategic partner” of Saudi Arabia.
The new deal for the US strategic partnership with countries in the region is just the margin of agreement and disagreement, which can have ups and downs, His Highness said. This is the nature of international relations at this stage. Flexibility has become a key element in managing relations between partners.
Everyone can see the depth of the differences between NATO allies without changing the partnership in any way. The GCC countries have a diverse set of strategic partnerships. The United States remains an essential part of this framework.
Their current partnership remains strong, not only because there is no reason to undermine it. But also because their common interests still dictate keeping it in place.
