Without a vaccine and treatment against the global coronavirus epidemic (COVID-19), extended lockdown in several countries risks worsening its economic, social and even psychological toll. Many countries are actively looking into exit strategies from this predicament. They are rethinking the policy of blanket shutdown faced with a threat that may last months and possibly longer.
According to a census conducted by the Johns Hopkins University, the viral infections in the US have spiked to over 700,000. The health situation in this country, the worst stricken on the planet, has taken a turn for the worse since the end of March. However, the Trump administration has announced plans to quickly resume the presidential campaign, halted by the spread of the new coronavirus.
The rallies are “great for the country” and “I hope we are going to have rallies,” the president said at a White House press conference. Under such circumstances, as huge swathes of the US Economy have been disrupted, Trump’s main worry is that he will fall victim to the crisis, having seen his popularity plummet in recent polls.
He has therefore developed his plan to “reopen America” in three stages, geared to the severity of the COVID-19 epidemic in each state. He even described this decision as “liberating” for a few Democrat-controlled states. “Liberate Minnesota,” “Liberate Michigan,” and “Liberate Virginia,” Trump tweeted.
Strategies to get out of the crisis are far from being a US-only affair. In Europe, German authorities have said the epidemic is under control after a month of restrictions on social life. In Denmark, they have started to lift quarantine restrictions and have gradually reopened schools in line with a planned timetable.
Austria and Italy have announced planned reopening of some non-essential businesses. In Switzerland, a cautious and gradual lifting of the quarantine in Switzerland was announced from 27 April.
Gradual reopening steps have been taken by Spain and Italy, the two countries most affected in Europe by this outbreak. The same goes for France, where 17,000 people have died from the virus. The country is moving ahead with plans to lift quarantine gradually, starting May 11.
The lingering health threat now poses a dual pressure: on the one hand, to reduce the health risk and, on the other hand, to address other woes, such as economic meltdown or fallout to a degree that limits the country’s ability to pick up growth in the foreseeable future on the back of growing poverty that carries potential for societal unrest.
The search for an exit strategy has led German car manufacturers to restart some of their plants, which have been suspended for four weeks on account of the coronavirus pandemic. These companies are trying to navigate the threat, adapt the working environment to new realities and maintain social distancing.
In the US, as in some European countries, the exit strategy plays out through a cautious reopening of the economies in a phased and responsive approach, taking pains not to shut down the economy for too long, which could inflict heavy blows to both businesses and individuals.
The US President warned of a sharp increase in drug and alcohol abuse, heart diseases and other physical and health problems. This contentious point was picked up by congressman Terry Hollingsworth (R). For him, letting more Americans die of coronavirus won’t hurt as much as the economic losses due to lockdown measures. Speaking of the soon-to-reopen US Economy, he said, “It is not zero evil, but it is the lesser of these two evils.” “We are going to have to look Americans in the eye and say ‘We are making the best decisions for the most Americans possible.’” “What is certainly and unequivocally required is that we get the Americans back to work.”
Objectively speaking, making an exit strategy choice is only a matter of time, not only because of the growing effects of the pandemic on economies and people, but also because the pandemic has no clear end in sight. However, the crisis has flared up in countries all over the world with no cooperative agreements or coordination measures in place, whereas chaos and unilateral actions have so far taken over crisis management.
In order to emerge from this chaotic state, exit strategies must fall within a framework of international cooperation that makes it possible to exchange experiences and information in all transparency. Although crisis measures may be halted in some countries and maintained in others, the global crisis is by no means behind us. The economic downturn persists. Even worse, the epidemic could set off again.
So, without international coordination, home-grown solutions will not be enough to overcome the current dilemma. The World Health Organization also needs to play a more effective role in helping countries cooperate and share information and expertise. The WHO must make recommendations to begin building a unified global strategy to get out of the crisis.
Even though conditions, contexts and cultures differ, as do human and economic impacts and losses, we can craft a scientist-driven strategy based on operational measures applicable in each particular society on its own merits.
