Opinion & Analysis

The future of a united Europe on a razor edge

Just three months after he took office, European Research Council President Mauro Ferrari quit, throwing into focus something much talked about in the media, that of how the global coronavirus epidemic will play out on the future of the EU.

Questions abound about the EU’s inability to come up with a coherent strategy to deal with the pandemic threat facing many member countries. Justifying his resignation, Mauro Ferrari said he had lost faith in the European system after being unable to set up a special programme to combat the coronavirus.

It is conceivable that his Italian origins may have added to his sense of frustration, as Italians have been very shaken by this epidemic. What is safe to say, however, is that Ferrari, who dreamed of a perfect EU, bumped into a wholly different reality, as he himself expressed it in a press statement.

Whatever the reasons for his resignation, it has drawn attention to a real dilemma for the EU, which has been slow to respond to the European countries that have suffered from the tragic outbreak of the virus. At present, the Union is having a hard time reaching a consensus on a strategy to deal with the crisis and help its hard-hit members.

There are reports of disputes among members over an economic rescue plan to address the stagnation and unemployment wrought by the crisis.

According to several observers, it would take years to make up for the losses incurred as a result of the crisis.

Depicting in detail Europe’s stark reality, some reports talk of a recession that France has not experienced since the World War II. The country is now going through an economic recession of about 6%. This is why German Chancellor Angela Merkel has called the emerging coronavirus crisis the greatest challenge for the EU since its foundation. For his part, French President Emmanuel Macron made it clear that the emergence of the coronavirus threatens the mainstays of the European bloc, and that “the risk is the death of Schengen.”

Another warning was issued by the former President of the European Commission. Jacques Delors warned that “The climate that seems to reign between heads of state and government and the lack of European solidarity pose a deadly danger to the EU.” If we add all these statements to other messages from the Italian authorities and others, the destiny of the EU seems mysterious.

The issue has not been limited to research circles, but is now part of official discussions within the Federation itself. The coronavirus crisis has hit the EU hard.

The EU, still reeling from the shock of the Brexit, had seen the departure of one of the Union’s biggest powers after Germany and France. Its exit has not even finished wreaking havoc on the workings of the European economy.

Not to mention the fact that the coronavirus has hit the economies of southern Europe. Southern Europe is still suffering the repercussions of waves of illegal immigration and the inability of these economies to fully recover from the effects of the sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone, once again demonstrating the fatal flaw in Europe’s North-South relations. Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, whose country was the world’s worst affected country in terms of pandemic-related mortality, even called on the EU not to make “tragic mistakes” that could “make it lose its raison d’être.”

In addition, an obstacle prevents governments in northern Europe from showing solidarity with southern European countries; their politicians fear that this is in the interest of far-right populist parties in countries including Germany and the Netherlands. This concern has prompted the former German Foreign and Economic Affairs Minister, Sigmar Gabriel, to express concern that Europe is disintegrating. “If we’re not prepared now to share our wealth, then I don’t know where this Europe is headed”

The statement follows the refusal of his country and Nordic countries like the Netherlands to call on nine EU Member States affected by the pandemic to issue collective loans, or corona-bonds, to mitigate the economic impact of the pandemic.

According to some researchers, the crisis will not necessarily lead to the collapse of the EU. But we can expect a slowdown and possibly changes to the Union’s founding agreements. Between the two main powers of the Union, France and Germany, there are two diverging visions of how to help the Member States affected by this dramatic situation. But they do not want to encourage the fall, dissolution or withdrawal of the Union either.

But the rub is that the EU as a whole risks losing its raison d’être in the eyes of its citizens, as the Italian Prime Minister has said. Voices could then be heard calling for a united Europe to emerge.

At a crucial moment in history, the EU has disappointed the citizens of Italy, one of its founding nations. All the more so as the old continent has become a hotbed of the deadly virus.

The EU therefore risked bringing about the bankruptcy of the European idea and the seeing the gains of some seven decades of common action wiped out.

A striking show for the media was when Italian citizens waved the flags of Russia and China, instead of, say, EU flags. Although the coronavirus crisis will transform our world, as the EU itself has conceded, it is still too early to conclude that the European dream will be shattered.

The Union nevertheless has solid mechanisms for overcoming differences and pitfalls. However, the slow reaction to help Italy and Spain protect themselves against the coronavirus pandemic will leave a huge void and some deep scars within the Union. All the more so as right-wing parties will take the opportunity to take issue with the usefulness of EU membership. Moreover, aid to Italy from countries from outside the Union, such as Russia, China and Cuba, may give some weight to this trend. Even the Spanish and Italian pro-Europeans were unable to defend the idea of the European project’s survival.

Dr. Salem Alketbi

Dr. Salem Alketbi is an Emirati political analyst and researcher whose work explains the forces reshaping the Middle East. He holds a PhD in Public Law and Political Science, awarded with highest distinction and a recommendation for publication, from Hassan II University in Casablanca. His thesis examined political and religious propaganda on Arab social media. His columns, published in Arab and international outlets, focus on Gulf security, Iran, countering extremism, and the UAE’s vision of a stable, prosperous region built on cooperation.

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