There are major differences between US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and the new minister Pompeo. The new US secretary of State has a personality that attracts Trump. Mike Pompeo could be a new hawk on Iran and North Korea.
Tillerson had a new approach in the Trump administration and was conservative about the potential summit between Trump and Kim. Talking to Fox News Sunday, the former CIA director said that “President Trump isn’t doing this for theatre. He’s going to solve a problem.”
Just before this historic summit, Pompeo seems to have played a major role in decision-making. Trump needs a big backer of his foreign policy, betting on a qualitative breakthrough in May. Trump speaks confidently about a “tremendous success”. He also expressed his confidence in North Korea’s commitment not to launch any missile until the date of its historic negotiations with Kim Jong-un. The US president has not shown any habitual caution he was used to before such important meetings.
Analysis of the dismissal of Tillerson went to consider it as a victory for the four boycotting countries of Qatar and a defeat for the Qatari position. This may indeed be one of the conclusions of the dismissal. To some, war proponents, not diplomats, will take the lead role, for others the war against Iran is close because of tensions between the White House and the US State Department.
At this very moment, Trump needs a foreign minister to support and implement his positions in the first place. The US president is about to solve several vital files, including Iran’s nuclear file in May. The planned meeting with the Northh Korean leader is a big deal for the US foreign policy. The White House is preparing for the “deal of the century” concerning the peace process in the Middle East. The relations between the Trump administration and the Kremlin are at stake.
Tillerson’s dismissal was in form of a tweet by Trump. Disagreements between Tillerson and Trump have become public through leaked private conversations. The US president questioned some statements attributed to his former foreign minister as underestimating the Trump’s mental health, describing him as ‘clumsy’.
Tillerson had not spoken with Trump and was unaware of the reason for his dismissal. President Donald Trump said that he and ousted Secretary of State Rex Tillerson “were not really thinking the same.” but Trump said he and Pompeo have a “very, very similar thought process.” I think things will go well, he added.
Tillerson’s fate has been known for months. Anthony Zurcher, the BBC’s correspondent in Washington, said the man has been on “crisp ice” ever since he took office. Tillerson did not have a background in the ministry he ran, he came directly from the Exxon Mobil.
The turning point in the relationship between Trump and Tillerson was his support of UK’s position in accusing the Kremlin of poisoning a former Russian agent. Tillerson said the gas “came from Russia.” “It certainly will trigger a response,” he said. The White House had refused the day before pointing fingers directly at Russia.
Trump’s move to fire Tillerson will effectively have an impact on the Middle East, especially the Iranian and Syrian files. Pompeo was in charge of the North Korean file and highly impressed Trump. The US president seeks to follow the same approach in dealing with Tehran. Trump’s withdrawal from the nuclear agreement with Iran is more likely. A more hostile American approach to Tehran is highly expected to internationally isolate Iran.
This approach raises important questions about the position of the Pentagon, especially after Gen. Joseph Votel, the commander of the US Central Command, made a clear reservation to withdraw from the nuclear agreement with Iran. In a recent testimony to the Senate Armed Services Committee, he said: “there would be some concern, I think, about how we intended to address [the Iranian nuclear] threat if it was not being addressed through the JCPOA.” “Right now I think it is in our interest” to stay in the agreement, he concluded. This is almost the position of Defense Secretary James Matisse. Will the Pentagon respond to the White House pressure on Iran’s file or will the two sides agree on an alternative strategy to deal with Iran before next May?
Iran should not underestimate the transformations and read the message and details of the strategic scene. Tehran does not have much time to contain any US steps toward it. Any US-North Korean consensus can threaten Iranian interests. Iran should take a step back and comply with the EU’s effort to find a way out of an impending crisis.
