Since the 1979 revolution, the Iranian regime has lived in a state of internal and external discord unlike any other state or regime. By this rupture is meant that the regime does not have normal relations with its own people or with the countries of the world. But we do not mean that it lives in complete isolation, as some observers and analysts say.
The regime maintains close relations with international powers, at least to fight the “Great Satan.” But understanding the Iranian situation requires a diagnosis and an accurate understanding of its dimensions, so that one can develop a view that takes into account the geographical realities that make Iran a geopolitically inseparable neighbor.
The protests taking place in Iran these days are neither fleeting nor strange to the domestic scene, seemingly in a state of chronic constipation, waiting for any spark to fire up the zeal of angry people to take to the streets. This time it was the tragic end of a girl arrested over how she wore a hijab. Anger flared, and Iran saw its worst riots in years.
This time, the Iranian regime cannot blame any other party for the protests. It’s homegrown. Yet we keep hearing statements by Iranian officials talking about an “external plan,” funded parties, regional actors, foreign radio stations, and other bogeymen that the regime uses to duck responsibility for boiling down a small crisis into a serious confrontation.
Mahsa Amini, the Iranian girl who fell victim to authoritarian violence and the excessive application of what some call religious rules, lit a fire under a regime that failed to make any effort to get closer to its people over the past decades and years, despite its well-known skill in allying with key countries and parties in order to secure its interests and so stay in power.
Amini was not the only victim of excessive violence by militias tasked with enforcing religious commandments, but to date dozens of people have been killed by Iranian security forces. The draconian regime pushed hundreds of Iranian women to take off their headscarves in defiance. Their mission to frighten and intimidate the women came up short.
They failed in forcibly enforcing orders in a society that feels all the brutality of the authoritarian restrictions foisted on it.
This is reflected in the immigration rates that have been soaring year after year, which stood at 1.45% of Iran’s population three decades ago, at the height of revolutionary mania and extreme application of punishment and sanctions, and rose to 2.32% in 2019, before Iran became one of the most visible countries to drive out its people, especially the elite, who crave any opportunity to escape the regime’s grip.
All this violence to bring Iranian protests under control contradicts what Ebrahim Raisi says, to “do whatever is necessary to facilitate the return of Iranians from abroad;” bringing in Iranian investors living abroad is supposedly a priority of his government, which he holds responsible for Iranians at home and abroad. Iranians do not deserve such misfortune since their coutry is not poor.
But it does suffer from misguided policies and outlay of funds to finance the regime’s expansionist plans, sectarian arms and paramilitary forces in various countries. Blaming international or US sanctions for poor living conditions is absurd.
The reasonable thing to do, however, is to ask about the causes of these sanctions, not their effects, so much as to diagnose exactly who is responsible for the gloom inside Iran that has caused the birth rate to plummet from 3.91 in 1986 to less than 1%. To be fair, in some countries population policies require a reduction in replacement rates.
This is already the case in a number of industrialized countries. But it is a voluntary reduction. It is not the fruit of fears for the future, poor living conditions, marriage incapacity, etc.
According to Iranian government reports, housing prices in the country have skyrocketed by about 400 percent in recent years, at a time when the regime boasts of building missile cities more than 70 kilometers underground in the Gulf and Sea of Oman, over and above the floating cities and drone arsenals that threaten regional countries.
IRGC Naval Forces Commander Admiral Alireza Tangsiri asks, “Is it conceivable that a nation as smart as Iran’s, which has produced a vaccine against coronavirus, weapons, missiles, and everything you can think of — is it conceivable that it will show all its potential and capabilities?” Yes, of course, that is part of what the regime has done with Iranian people’s money.
But it has nothing to do with the intelligence of the Iranian people, who would certainly much rather use these enormous funds to build cities for young people than for missile depots. As a matter of fact, nobody is hostile to Iran’s progress and development. Quite the opposite.
A stable, economically advanced and developing Iran is a much-needed qualitative addition to the region and a linchpin of stability for neighboring countries. Iran could even use its capabilities to trigger an industrial, agricultural, and technological boom that would benefit millions of people who would rather die from Basij bullets than live at the mercy of extremism.
Mamsa Amini will not be the last victim of Iranian oppression. But she will remain a testament to the condemnation of a regime that purports to protect the rights of other communities. It continues to squander the wealth and money of its people to cling to power and clout. It does not stop wreaking havoc and chaos and funding terrorism everywhere.
