Opinion & Analysis

Turkey’s crisis-making strategy

Many may see that Turkey has made much progress and success in the last two decades, particularly on the economic front. But recent years have seen a steady flow of losses and blows. The blows undermined many of those successes and achievements. Turkey has turned from a model and a “dream” – at least on the level of drama and unreality – to an example and a model, but in the opposite direction, i.e. in self-destruction and the transition from success to failure and divisions.

One of the reasons or secrets of this negative transformation and the serious deterioration of the Turkish situation lies in the political transformation taking place in the country.

The country has achieved a lot due to the zero-problem policy pursued by former Foreign Minister Davutoglu, the country’s foreign policy architect in one of its most important historical phases. It is a policy that president Erdogan turned against when he mobilized all sources of power, influence and power and brought them into his hands through a constitutional amendment that changed the constitutional and political form of the Turkish state just to stay in office for longer years.

After the turn of the Oglu page, Ottoman Erdogan Turkey moved from zero problems to “mother of all problems” as it became a crisis maker and a source of inconvenience and regional tensions.

It has fared up conflicts, disasters and disagreements-devastating for the Turkish economy-with major international powers such as the US and the European Union. It has carried out unlawful military intervention in Syria and is preparing to intervene in Libya under the pretext of supporting the Government of National Accord led by Fayez al-Sarraj against the Libyan National Army led by General Khalifa Haftar.

The President is trying hard to split the Arab ranks and deepen Arab-Arab differences and take advantage of any circumstances or a gap in the wall of Arab relations in order to regain the glory of his ancestors.

In this context, President Erdogan recently paid a sign visit to Tunisia accompanied by a delegation of the Turkish Foreign and Defense Ministers and intelligence leaders. Turkey’s military intervention was firmly on the agenda of talks with the new Tunisian president, Qais Said. Said did not offer a clear support to the Turkish attempt toward Libya.

But Erdogan took advantage of his presence near the Libyan border to announce that he would meet the Tripoli government’s request to send Turkish troops as part of a formal Turkish military intervention approved by the Turkish parliament. Although Erdogan’s visit to Tunisia did not achieve the results he dreamed of, it has created an ungood atmosphere for the new Tunisian presidency.

The new Tunisian presidency is still in a stage of formulating its strategy externally. The visit to some seemed to be a Tunisian alignment alongside the Turkish axis known for its hostility to Arab countries and its blatantly provocative interventions in Syria. The Tunisian presidency has therefore taken the initiative to distance itself from any inaccurate interpretations of the visit. The Tunisian presidency said that the country will not enter into the politics of axes.

Erdogan is playing a very dangerous game regionally. His reckless actions threaten to ignite a regional conflict whose effects and implications are not known.

In particular, some reports indicate that Turkey has transferred thousands of terrorists from Idlib to Tripoli to get rid of the risk of having them near the Turkish border, claiming to support the Government of National Accord.

Erdogan risks dispersing his country’s power and destroying its economy because he is fully aware of the danger of his direct military intervention in Libya, and that he will face Russian-American-European rejection.

Likewise, Egypt and the Arab countries reject this blatant interference. This intervention reflects Erdogan’s disregard for international and regional will and undermines Arab demands for national security.

Erdogan’s decision to intervene in Libya will be the final nail in the coffin of his authoritarian ambitions and regional adventures, which have led the AKP to an unhappy end, whether because of the splits of senior party leaders objecting to Erdoğan’s politics and dictatorship or because of the Turkish economy’s losses in recent years and the currency’s unprecedented depreciation caused by the Quixotic conflicts Erdoğan ignites.

President Erdogan is risking Turkey’s interests in order to achieve his personal agenda and his desire to support the Muslim Brotherhood terrorist organization that makes up the Sarraj government, and to fight Egypt and create problems in its regional neighborhood.

He speaks of strange allegations such as the protection of Libyan citizens of Turkish origin in Libya, in a position that flouts all international principles, norms and conventions.

Turkish military intervention in Libya would be a reckless venture by all means and strategic calculations and its disastrous effects will not only affect the Turkish regime but will also Libya in the present and the future. The flames may even move to other regions and countries.

The international community has a great responsibility to curb the Turkish Sultan’s ambition and stop his destructive plan of intervention in Libya.

Dr. Salem Alketbi

Dr. Salem Alketbi is an Emirati political analyst and researcher whose work explains the forces reshaping the Middle East. He holds a PhD in Public Law and Political Science, awarded with highest distinction and a recommendation for publication, from Hassan II University in Casablanca. His thesis examined political and religious propaganda on Arab social media. His columns, published in Arab and international outlets, focus on Gulf security, Iran, countering extremism, and the UAE’s vision of a stable, prosperous region built on cooperation.

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